June 6, 2001
Incumbent Khatami
overwhelming leader among presidential contenders;
Voters
split on direction nation is headed;
Paris,
New York, most desired cities to visit,
Abu
Dhabi TV/Zogby Poll reveals
Abu Dhabi Television
commissioned Zogby International to conduct a poll of Iran voters prior to the
nation's June 8 election. The Abu Dhabi/Zogby International Poll was conducted
on Sunday and Monday (June 3-4) among 500 voters in Iran. The poll has a margin
of sampling error of +/- 4.5%.
All interviews
were conducted face-to-face by experienced nationals in Iran using a survey
instrument developed by Zogby International in conjunction with Abu Dhabi
Television. Weights were applied to determine the most likely voters. Weights
and written analysis have been supplied by Zogby International.
Below
are highlights of the poll:
- style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt'>With the election only
a few days away, voter interest appears to be quite low. Only one in five
voters say that they are following presidential election news closely.
Another 43% are following it "somewhat closely". But a little more than one in three (35%) say they have low
or no interest. Interest is highest among those in the highest income
levels (32%) and college educated (25%) - which includes a major piece of
Khatami's support base.
Focusing on the Presidential
elections
All Upper Class
Middle Class Lower
Class
|
High
|
22
|
32
|
19
|
30
|
|
Somewhat
|
43
|
30
|
46
|
37
|
|
Low
|
35
|
38
|
35
|
33
|
- style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt'>President Mohammad
Khatami, who was elected in 1997 with 70% of the vote in 1997 looks like
he may very well match that support in 2001. Among those most likely to
vote for a candidate, he receives 75% of the vote, followed by former
labor minister and newspaper publisher Ahmad Tavakkoli at 11%. The
remaining seven candidates are at 2%-3%. Tavakkoli's support is highest
among 15-24 year olds (17%), voters who feel that Iran is on the "wrong
track" (15%), women (14%), and those in the highest educated group (14%).
But Khatami's support is wide and deep - 69% among 15-24 year olds, 78%
among 25-64 year olds, 82% among those over 65, 81% among "right
direction" voters, and even 68% of "wrong track" voters. style="mso-spacerun: yes"> He receives 93% support among those in
the highest income group, 71% among the middle income group, and 76% from
the lowest income group. Men and women are tied with 75% and there is no
difference between Farsis (75%) and other ethnic groups (74%).
Favorite Candidate
All Upper Class Middle Class Lower Class Right
Direction Wrong Direction
|
Khatami
|
75
|
93
|
71
|
76
|
81
|
68
|
|
Tavakkoli
|
11
|
2
|
12
|
12
|
7
|
15
|
|
Jasbi
|
3
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
- style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt'>In a very important
barometric reading, by a margin of 69% to 14%, Iran's voters feel that
Khatami deserves re-election. This is significant because it means his
support is strong even without any opponents - including the many
conservative opponents that have been thrown against him by his opposition
in an effort to dilute his strength. Thus, his basic support is nearly as
strong as his vote count.
Again, those believing he deserves re-election are
across the board - 74% among 15-24 year olds, 68% among 25-64 year olds, 64%
among those over 65, 83% of "right direction" voters and even 60% among "wrong
track" voters. Men and women again are tied - 68% men and 70% women. The same
solid majorities - all hovering around the seven in ten mark - exist among
ethnic, income, and social class sub-groups.
Appropriateness of Khatami's reelection
All Upper Middle Lower Right Dir.
Wrong Dir.
|
Agree
|
69
|
80
|
67
|
71
|
83
|
60
|
|
Disagree
|
14
|
9
|
15
|
12
|
6
|
24
|
- style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt'>Where Khatami slides is
on his job performance rating - only 42% positive and 56% negative. This
appears to be more a statement about the economy and about the failure of
reformers to penetrate the powerful wall of religious conservative
leadership represented by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini and the Religious
Council. Khatami's positive rating is only 46% among 15-24 year olds, 39%
among 25-64 year olds, 37% among the middle classes, and 37% among the
lower class. Men are far less generous with 38% than women at 46%. And
non-Farsis grant only a 36% rating.
On the other hand, Khatami's support remains solid
among the upper class (70%) and voters over 65 - 59%.
Evaluation of Khatami's job performance
All
Upper Middle
Lower Right Dir. Wrong Dir. Men Women
|
Positive
|
42
|
70
|
36
|
37
|
58
|
29
|
38
|
46
|
|
Negative
|
56
|
30
|
60
|
60
|
41
|
68
|
62
|
42
|
- style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt'>In most cases and in
most nations we have polled, the "right direction-wrong track" question
provides an excellent barometer of an incumbent's chances at re-election.
In the case of Iran, the even split - 36% say the country is headed in the
right direction, 35% say things are on the wrong track - seems to be more
a statement aimed at Khameni's opposition than at Khatami himself or the
reform movement. The same groups that give Khatami his solid support for
re-election are the ones most likely to suggest that Iran is on the wrong
track.
Direction of the Country
All
Upper Middle Lower
|
Right
|
36
|
37
|
33
|
48
|
|
Wrong
|
35
|
34
|
36
|
30
|
- style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt'>We attempted to ask
several questions about improved relations with the United States, the
United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and the Gulf Countries - but were advised to
not test our welcome. Instead, we thought we might best gauge attitudes
toward the rest of the world by offering a question aimed at eliciting the
choice of the city that respondents would most like to visit. Our list
included - New York City, Paris, Dubai (for its proximity), Marrakesh, and
Beijing. The overwhelming choice of all sub-groups: Paris at 30%. New York
City was a distant second at 14% (though 22% among 15-24 year olds).
Dubai was in third place with 8% and Beijing was
supported by 3%. Marrakesh was provided as another choice, but was not selected
by anyone.
Final Note
President
Mohammad Khatami is well-positioned to win on Friday, June 8. The only real
question is whether or not he will reach the level of support he enjoyed four
years ago (70%). The strategy of his opponents was to include several
conservative candidates who might siphon votes away from him and reduce his
overall number of votes. This appears to have failed with all of Khatami's
opponents some form of "reform" rhetoric and program and, thus, competing with
each other.
With
only one in three voters saying the country is moving in the right direction
and only two in five giving the President a positive job approval rating, it
might appear that Khatami is in trouble. But voters do not seem convinced that
the President's opponents represent a real alternative. These numbers also seem
to suggest that voters do not blame the President for the country's wrong
direction and are not convinced that, given the country's political structural
realities, he, by himself, can make a difference in moving Iran in the right
direction.
It,
therefore, looks like Khatami may be in good shape to repeat his huge vote. But
concerns about rising unemployment and powerlessness in the face of the
religious conservatives could dampen enthusiasm by reducing the numbers of
supporters who actually cast a ballot for him - and instead decide to cast a
blank ballot.
In
any event, it will be hard to read any kind of big victory for Khatami as
anything but a continued mandate for reform. His big problem is how long he can
keep the people's strong support without being a "reformer with results",
especially as he faces an increase in unemployment and economic
stagnation.
John and James Zogby
Utica, New York,
13502 Washington, DC 20006
Phone: (315) 624-0200
Fax: (315) 624-0210 Phone: (202) 429-0022
E-Mail:
mail@zogby.com
Web Page:
http//:www.zogby.com
... Payvand News - 6/7/01 ... --
