By: Siamak Namazi
Managing Editor
Iran Energy Focus
President Mohammad Khatami was among the first to lend his voice to the
chorus of world leaders condemning the 11th September attacks on New York
and Washington. Many other Iranian officials from both sides of the
political divide soon joined the President in unequivocally denouncing the
acts of terrorism against the United States. Even the routine chants of
“Death to America!” that have become a staple part of the Friday Prayers in
Iran ceased.
Within a few days after the kamikaze attacks in the US, nearly all the
political forces in Iran had unanimously condemned them. Adopting such a
collective stance on a subject of foreign affairs was certainly
unprecedented. Apart from a few print media controlled by the radical
conservative wing, the contents of most other papers also support this
hypothesis.
The speed and cross-factional nature of Tehran’s condemnation was quickly
picked up in Washington as analysts discussed the possibility of a
relatively speedy Iran-US rapprochement, or at least the warming up of
bilateral relations.
Indeed, the tragedy in America reminded both governments of their shared
interests, particularly in regard to their opposition to the Taliban regime
in Afghanistan. In addition, Washington hinted that it was willing to
overlook its objections to the behaviour of states like Iran, in order to
enhance its chances of success in the current operations against Osama bin
Laden.
Direct and indirect messages were bandied about. In a rare move, Secretary
of State Colin Powell sent a letter directly to Tehran, via the US interest
section in the Swiss Embassy. The exact contents of the letter were never
fully revealed. The press was only told that the Bush Administration found
the Islamic Republic’s position interesting enough to pursue further
possibilities of co-operation.
Prospects looked even brighter when, after a telephone conversation between
President Khatami and Prime Minister Tony Blair, the British were so
encouraged that they decided to send their foreign secretary, Jack Straw, to
Tehran immediately, rather than wait for the scheduled trip in November.
Trailing Mr. Straw was an EU Troika delegation, which confirmed the general
theory that things were going very well.
That is why many analysts were taken off-guard when Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei delivered what was widely regarded as an anti-American diatribe
on 26th September, the day after Mr. Straw’s visit.
During his speech in front of the veterans and families of martyrs of the
Iran-Iraq war, Mr. Khamenei accused the US of overstepping its rights and
taking advantage of the 11th September bombings. He was also unequivocal
about the fact that "Islamic Iran will not participate in any measure that
is led by the United States," which he said was not “fit” to lead an
international anti-terrorist effort.
Few were surprised by the Iranian Leader’s stance that Iran would not stand
side-by-side with the Americans in an attack on neighbouring Afghanistan.
Iranian officials had made it abundantly clear that they would only support
an effort led by the United Nations. Even Mr. Straw went on the record
stating that he was not trying to seek military help from the Iranians. But
the harsh tone of the Leader’s speech and the fact that “Death to America!”
chants were resumed for the first time since the attacks on New York and
Washington, indicate that Tehran is not pleased with the messages coming
from the United States.
President Khatami’s speech the next day echoed similar sentiments. Although
Khatami was typically less hard-line than the Leader, his speech did include
an uncharacteristic direct criticism of the American president. Referring
to Bush’s statements that countries stand either with the US or with the
terrorists, the Iranian president said: “Sometimes a powerful people become
arrogant to the extent that they think they are absolutely right and those
with objections are wrong. Such a way of thinking is not right at all.”
Why the change of tone?
Concomitant with the high-level European officials shuttle diplomacy to
Tehran, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) held a unique
meeting at which Leader Khamenei personally sat in on the session, instead
of relying on his representative. To appreciate the event, it should be
recalled that the last time an Iranian leader took a direct part in an SNSC
meeting dated back to the Iran-Iraq War.
Behind various closed doors the leaders of the Islamic Republic reached the
conclusion that Iran would do best not to associate itself too closely with
the Americans. Nonetheless, Tehran is also remaining unequivocal about its
condemnation of the attacks, also in stating that it wants to be part of an
international, UN-led effort against terrorism; but not one that is
unilaterally spearheaded by Washington.
No doubt various factors were at play in getting Iran to this point.
Arguably the fact that had the most impact on Iran was the threatening tone
adopted by the United States. This issue goes considerably beyond the
famous “you are either with us or with the terrorist” quote of President
Bush now that the Americans have indicated that they intend to overthrow the
Taliban regime. The Iranian leaders, mistrustful of the Americans to start
with, are obviously deeply concerned with the issue, not knowing if, soon
after the Taliban, Washington would turn on regimes like that in Tehran.
Compounding the problem is the fact that the Americans are contemplating
returning the former Afghan monarch, which is certainly unwelcome news for
an Islamic regime that came about after overthrowing a monarch itself.
These sentiments can be detected in the important Friday Prayer sermon this
week, which was given by former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. In his
own words:
“One of their biggest mistakes is that they are threatening certain
countries. You have heard their remarks. They say that they will begin
with the Al-Qa’ida and one by one they get to other terrorists and those who
support the terrorists. Previously, they had also said who the supporters
of terrorists were. Firstly, a certain five or six countries come to mind,
and then whichever country they wish can be added to that list. Because
only a ball-point pen is needed to add a name to that list. Such threats
are also not right. What would the result of such threats be? They will
stop co-operating with you if they see that they are going to be next after
the Al-Qa’ida. They not only stop co-operating with you; they will also
oppose you. The current situation is not a situation in which one could say
I am the bully and that is it. The current situation needs an invitation
for co-operation.”
Similar concerns are seen among the groups forming the reformist faction.
For example, the Islamic Revolution’s Mujahedin Organisation (IRMO), a
powerful reformist group close to the President, released a communiqué
stating its analysis of the situation. IRMO questioned the true motive of
the Americans, accusing Washington of taking advantage of the 11th September
tragedy to advance its regional ambitions. “This huge military deployment
once again is reminiscent of the presence of America and its willing or
coerced allies in the Persian Gulf and the attack on Iraq, but on a greater
scale. IRMO, like many other groups in Iran, are afraid that the US is
intent on increasing and fortifying its presence in the region.
A myriad of other issues comes to mind. Iran has serious disagreements with
the United States regarding the definition of terrorism. This is most
obvious in the case of various Palestinian groups and Lebanese Hizbollah,
which the Islamic Republic regards as legitimate freedom fighters, and not
terrorists.
Then there is the role of Tehran as one of the leaders of the Muslim world.
How can the Islamic Republic not oppose an attack that could lead to the
deaths of innocent Muslim civilians? How could the clerical regime in
Tehran not speak out against what it sees as the Israelis taking advantage
of the situation against the Palestinians? President Bush’s naïve use of
the term “crusade” to describe America’s war on terrorism did not help
matters in this respect. Furthermore, since the US has not turned over any
concrete evidence linking bin Laden to the attacks in Washington and New
York, the Iranians’ sense of paranoia has been heightened. Some use this to
fortify their argument that the US is really following a different agenda.
Others worry that if at a later date another group were found responsible,
the Islamic Republic would lose a great deal of credibility among its own
people and in front of the Muslim world in general.
In essence, while Tehran initially saw the 11th September event as an
opportunity to pursue its interests vis-à-vis Washington, it soon
interpreted US requirements for a deal as an invitation to a legitimacy
crisis. No doubt Tehran is also aware of the dangers that come along with
not co-operating with Washington at this critical juncture and is concerned
with possibly being subjected to the wrath of America’s terrorist-hunt,
given that it is listed by the State Department as the leading state sponsor
of terrorism.
By repeatedly speaking out against terrorism and the September attacks, and
by offering to take an active part in a UN-led fight against the “cancerous
tumour” of global terrorism, Iran is addressing some of these concerns. But
the Islamic Republic has perhaps also concluded that it has more cards
tucked up its sleeve than the Bush Administration would like to openly
admit.
The United States needs the leading Muslim nations to supports its cause, if
nothing else in order to minimise the possibility of a major, dangerous
anti-American backlash in the Islamic world. Three nations are crucial in
this regard: Saudi Arabia and Egypt for the Sunni Muslims and Iran for the
Shi’a. Hence, it is not surprising that Iran is finding it easier to take
on a more demanding tone at a time when its position seems well co-ordinated
with the other mentioned nations. It is also no coincidence that Foreign
Minister Kamal Kharrazi is in Cairo, marking the first time ever that
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is meeting with an official from the
Islamic Republic.
The game between Tehran and Washington is getting more complicated and the
outcome is not yet fully predictable. But the new tone from Iranian leaders
does not spell the end. The Americans have asked the Japanese to use their
influence to talk to Iran. This time, the Iranians are much more in tune
with what they deem acceptable and what is out of the question.