It is now clear that the United States regards Usama Bin Laden responsible for the recent terrorist attacks on New York and Washington. To that effect the U.S. has asked Taliban to hand him over but Taliban have so far rejected this demand. The most likely course of action for the U.S. is to form an international coalition and carry out a military operation against Bin Laden and the Taliban regime. The U.S. has asked all Islamic countries including Iran, Libya and Syria to join this coalition.

While Iran has strongly condemned this terrorist attack, it has so far been reluctant to offer any assistance to the coalition. On the other hand Pakistan and many Arab countries have offered to join the US crusade against terrorism. Given the geopolitical conditions of Afghanistan, among the Islamic nations that have offered their support so far, Pakistan is the only country that can play a crucial role in any significant military offensive. Pakistan shares a long border with Afghanistan and is by far the main supporter of the Taliban regime. However, as the events of the last few days have shown, the Islamic parties of Pakistan are strongly opposed to their government’s cooperation with the U.S. in any type of military operation against Taliban. The government of Pakistan faces a growing danger of domestic unrest and even civil war, if it helps the U.S. ground forces enter Afghanistan.

Under these circumstances, if Iran chooses to join the coalition it can play a crucial role in its success. Indeed if the Pakistani option proves unreliable, Iran’s cooperation might be the only viable alternative for the coalition. Uzbakistan and Tajikestan have offered their assistance but Russia will most likely impose limits on the role that these former Soviet Republics can play. Hence the important question is whether Iran will join the coalition or remain neutral?

Given the state of US-Iran relations over the last 25 years, it seems natural for most Iranian leaders to wonder why should Iran offer any assistance to the United States. After all the US has repeatedly accused Iran of supporting terrorism and has imposed economic sanctions on it. The U.S. has also opposed the sale of advanced technology by any nation to Iran and so many other issues that most readers are well aware of. Taking all of these issues into account, who can blame Iran for wishing to remain neutral.

However, I believe that despite all of these problems there are many reasons why Iran should offer at least partial support to the US led coalition. These reasons are as follows:

1) In recent years Iran has taken several steps to re-establish diplomatic relations with the United States. Offering support to the U.S. led coalition will significantly increase the level of goodwill and mutual trust between the two nations and will pave the way for normalization of relations. By ending the current hostilities Iran’s economic and political isolation will come to an end. The sanctions against Iran will be lifted and it will become far easier for Iran to attract foreign investment. Iran’s chances for membership in WTO will increase significantly. The US opposition to the transport of Caspian Sea oil through Iran (which is the most efficient route for this purpose) will end and Iran will have more bargaining power in its dealings with all of its neighbors.

2) Iran’s relations with Afghanistan have deteriorated ever since 1996 when Taliban came to power. During this same period the influence of Pakistan has increased. There is a good possibility that the U.S. will replace Taliban with a new pro-western regime. Unless Iran offers some degree of assistance to the U.S. led coalition, it will not be able to exert any influence on the composition of Afghanistan’s future government. (Given the ethnic and religious mix of Afghanistan, an ideal government will be a non-sectarian regime that does not exclude any ethnic or religious group.)

3) Iran has rightfully expressed concern about the loss of civilian lives and the human suffering that will inevitably result from a U.S. military campaign. The question is whether presence of Iran in the coalition will lead to less suffering for the Afghan people or more. Iran’s cooperation will reduce Afghanistan’s human suffering for several reasons. First, it increases the bargaining power of the US at the initial negotiation period with Taliban. Taliban know that United States can not rely on Pakistan’s full support because of the anti-US feelings in that country. At the same time the assistance offered by Russia (via Uzbakistan and Tajikestan) and India will not be as effective. Hence Taliban will have little incentive to hand over Bin Laden and his supporters. On the other hand, if Iran joins the coalition, Taliban will realize that the coalition will have a much better chance of military success. They will therefore have more incentive to accept the U.S. demands before a full scale war begins.

Second, in the event that the US launches a military campaign against Taliban, Iran’s assistance will allow the coalition to carry out precise ground operations, which will result in far less human casualties and destruction. In the absence of Iran’s cooperation the U.S. will have to rely more on aerial operations, which will take much longer to succeed and lead to more civilian casualties.

4) If Iran does not offer at least a limited support to the U.S. initiative against terrorism, it might itself become a target of US operations. Even if the U.S. does not take any direct action against Iran, it might side with Iran’s opponents and adversaries in any future disputes. (The future of three small islands in the Persian Gulf, that are claimed by both Iran, and the UAE, is a good example.)

5) Finally, despite all the animosities of the past two decades, we must not forget the crucial role that the U.S. played during the 1945-46 Azerbaijan crisis. In December of 1945, while Soviet forces were still occupying the northern provinces of Iran, the communist and separatist elements in Azarbaijan province, declared independence and created the Republic of Azarbaijan (not to be mistaken with the current republic of Azerbaijan). In a similar move the communist and separatist elements in Kurdistan created the Kurdish Republic of Mahabad. Both of these republics were supported by the Soviet troops, which prevented the (Iranian) government forces from reaching these provinces. The Soviet troops finally left Iran under direct pressure from the United States. The U.S. further forced the Soviets to end their support for the newly established republics of Azarbaijan and Kurdistan. In December of 1946 the government forces entered these two provinces and put an end to the secessionist movements. Without the U.S. intervention Iran’s victory over these movements would have been very unlikely.