A two days summit of Caspian states failed to resolve the thorny issue of Caspian legal regime, yet it reflected a minor diplomatic success for Iran as Russia's effort to paint Iran as the odd man out was stonewalled, and this explains President Putin's stern anti-Iran position now.

At the summit, the Russian delegation was expressly enamored of "sea of peace," and yet, returning home empty-handed and faced with a post-summit (overkill) of Iran's president touring the region, the Russian President wasted little time in acting as diplomatic circuit breaker by going to Astrakhan and announcing (a) a major military maneuver and (b) threatening to sign various bilateral agreements should the other states fail to reach agreement on a new Caspian legal regime.

Putin's muscular turnabout, from the tone and messages delivered at the summit, is likely to send shivers in Ashghabat whose leader has somewhat closely aligned himself with Iran on the Caspian dispute, although President Niazov is opportunistic enough to play both sides.

Russia's military move in the Caspian is geared toward several objectives: First, it serves notice on Iran that there is a limit to Russia's playing diplomatic games of skill and the military equation plays a key role. Second, it offsets the summit setback harming Putin's prestige. Third, it also helps the overall Russia's Eurasian strategy currently drawn in the quagmire of uncertainty and anxiety as a result of accommodating the U.S. war in Afghanistan, which has overnight impacted the Russian sphere of influence in Central Asia-trans-Caucasus. Putin is particularly incensed by Kazakhstan's welcoming U.S. assistance for building its naval force, following Baku's example. Kazakhstan has been completely in sink with Russia on the Caspian legal question, and yet, the mere prospect of its U.S. suzerainty has rattled Moscow which fears the break up of the so-called "Northern Caspian" alliance consisting of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan.

These aside, the mere presence of some 100 Russian warships on Caspian waters itself forms a momentum for the Russian military to flex its muscle and the military logic sui generis should not be overlooked either. What is certain, however, is that the post-September 11 green light to America to militarily intervene in the area has now been turned yellow.

As for Iran's reaction to Putin's post-summit move, there is no alternative but to push for collective security and a de-militarized Caspian, together with creative efforts to dissuade Iran's Caspian neighbors from allowing themselves from being bullied by Moscow. An apt alternative for Iran is to legally internationalize the Caspian dispute by threatening foreign oil companies of the prospect of costly litigation in international courts should they enter into any bilateral agreements in violation of the Caspian legal regime.