Iran News ...


2/27/03

Iran's population projection reduced to 105 m in 2050

London, Feb 27, IRNA -- The population of Iran will be 105 million in 2050 with people living longer and having a median age of 40 years old, twice the current average, according to the latest revised figures from the UN Population Division.

The rise in from the current population of 20m is at a lower rate than the increase to 121m projected by the UN last year and is in line with a 400m reduction in the estimated global population to 8.9 billion by the middle of the century.

Over the next 50 years, Iran is expected to move up from 17th to 16th in a table of the world's most populated countries. In the process the number of Iranians will overtake the declining populations in Germany and Russia, but not Japan as earlier forecast.

Life expectancy of people living in Iran is also projected to increase from a current average age of 70 to 79 years old by 2050. At the same time, infant mortal rate is expected to be slashed from 33 to nine per 1,000 live births.

The most marked change, as elsewhere in the world, will be in the demographic make-up of Iran. The current 35.2 percent of children under the age of 14 as a proportion of the population will be halved, while the number of people over 60 will rise fourfold to 25 percent.

The UN report 2050 World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision suggested that the highest population growth would be in India, with the number of people rising by 50 percent to 1.5 bn and overtaking China as the world's most populated country.

The next highest growth rates were expected in Pakistan, Nigeria and Ethiopia, moving up to 4th, 6th and 9th respectively among the highest populations.

The downward revision in the world's population was accounted for by lower fertility rates expected in the future and an increase in the number of deaths, primarily from AIDS.

Future fertility rates were projected to fall to be below the replacement level of 2.1 children per women in most developing countries at some point in the 21st century.

While many developed countries were expected to experience declining population, in some like Britain and the US, increases were forecast partly as a result of immigration.

... Payvand News - 2/27/03 ... --



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