I received a lot of emails from readers of Payvand regarding an article I wrote on Payvand on 5/27/03 (Reza Pahlavi is shooting himself in the foot) and I do not know if I will be able to reply to everyone one of them. A number of people expressed their frustration at Reza Pahlavi (a "free loader" as someone has called him) speaking on their behalf regarding the future of our country Iran. I also received a couple of emails from Pahlavi's sympathizers and I was asked how much the Islamic Republic was paying me!!!! Seems like compensation and "rate of pay" are the only issues that Pahlavi supporter are interested in. What I learned from these emails is that Iranians are frustrated with media coverage of Iran and those scary hawks and their plans for a "democratic Middle East" and Iran in particular. I was asked how can I be so sure the hawks plan to return Pahlavi and monarchists back to Iran will fail.
I think that mainstream politicians, even high-ranking Republican Senators in US Senate, do not take Pahlavi seriously. Interest in Pahlavi is limited to AEI (American Enterprise Institute), AIPAC (American Israeli Political Affairs Committee), Pentagon hawks and a few obsolete characters here and there such as James Woosley (former CIA director), Rob Sobhani (although this one is a funny character) and few other right-wing nuts and of course some of the old regime's leftovers.
The influence of the hawks in shaping Bush's foreign policy has been exaggerated in US media and the fact that even alternative media as well as international news organization talk and write about the hawks makes one to think that they have the upper hand in shaping US foreign policy which I think they don't, at least not anymore. Also, the "two state solution" under the "road map" to resolve Isralei-Palestian conflict is not what the hawks, AIPAC and the crowd that calls themselves Christian Zionists had in mind. This is an ongoing process and the President is personally involved in the negotiations that will take place starting next week.
The hawks in the administration were successful however, in having an upper hand following the events of 9/11 up until after the invasion of Iraq. Prior to the invasion of Iraq they were also successful to put the "axis of evil" speech in front of the least knowledgeable President in the history of the United States of America and asked him to read it. This is the same President whose only exposure to foreign policy has been a crash course back in 1999-2000 where he learned, among other things, that Middle East is a region and not a country!
Now that the US is in Iraq and those 500 tons of chemical weapons are nowhere to be found, it is time to go back to the "CIA intelligence" because the "Pentagon intelligence" is not reliable( it is more of a source or embarrassment! for the administration). The assessment of CIA regarding Reza Pahlavi, monarchists and leftovers of the Shah's regime is (and has been) that they are unpopular, weak, corrupt and of no use to the United States.
Paul Wolfwitz was stunned and did not have an answer to a high ranking Republican Senator's question when the senator asked him what Pentagon's plan was for running civilian affairs in Iraq. This is the same genius who has worked on America's future in the next century down in the basement of Pentagon for the last 12 years! There was no plan concerning civilian life in Iraq, the only plan was to invade Iraq and take over its natural resources. There was no plan to guard Iraqi museums, and other civilian institutions. Pentagon did have a plan to protect Iraqi oil wells in case Saddam decided to burn them before he goes to hiding.
So far the hawks have been able to use lies, deceptions and misinformation to get where they are, at the cost of creating a big gap between US and the rest of the word (not just Europe and Middle East). They have managed to get US involved in Afghanistan and Iraq and this is a great task, a big bite to chew, something that will keep US busy for years to come. It will take years and billions of dollars to keep Iraq running and provide basic needs such as clean water, food, electricity, schools, etc to get something called a "normal life" back to Iraq. The revenue from pumping Iraqi oil to the international market will not be enough to pay for these costs for the next 5-10 years. There is not enough Iraqi cash/credit in international banks to pay for these costs, even if they find all of Saddam and his family's hidden money (in foreign banks or behind hidden walls) this money will not be enough to pay for these costs. Not according to some Congressional estimates. The Pentagon has been dragging its feed in presenting a number, an estimates on how much it will cost US government to keep Iraq running. They have not even given an estimate to US Congress on how much it will take to keep 200 thousands or so troops in Iraq each year.
Reza Pahlavi's mistake is that he thinks that the hawks will have the power to overthrow Islamic Regime and put him in power. He is under the impression that Pentagon's "Iran war handbook" is being published very soon. The fact is that US does not even have the resources (troops) to wage another war against Iran. President Bush just signed a 330 billion dollar check to his rich buddies and there is no money left to pay for another war even if the President authorizes an invasion of Iran tomorrow. The number of soldiers, tanks, fighter jets and battleships in US Army is not unlimited.
As long as Reza Pahlavi is associated with these right-wing lunatics he has no chance to get anywhere. The Pentagon hawks may not even have their jobs next year! Pahlavi's association with these seasonal politicians as well as those scholars" and "fellows" at those right wing institutions, who use lies and deceptions to portray the current affairs of the world, will work to his disadvantage.
Sobhani made a disgusting comment about Iranian women living in Iran to please some Pahlavi supporters living mostly in Los Angles at the cost of upsetting a large number of other Iranians to a point that a number of them have signed a petition so that he will be expelled from George Washington University. Why Sobhani doesn't say something to appease Iranians instead of upsetting them is beyond me? They already have the support of monarchists why not do something, or say something to get more support from Iranians of different walks of life? I have no idea how someone with so little common sense can teach in a university. I'll make sure I won't be sending my children to Georgetown University to get their educations from a bozo like Sobhani! Can Reza Pahlavi claim he has support of Iranian people when he is associated with wrong people and with serious reputation problems?
The blood of the children of Iran should not be shed to overthrow a reactionary regime only to pave the way for Pahlavi to show up (along with his friends) at the end to loot Iran's wealth.
The sad part of all of this affair is that the Bush Adminstration may end up dealing with the "unelected few" Iranians who are running Iran. The hard-line mullahs may end up having a stronger position (just like North Korea) after they have been labeled "axis of evil."
... Payvand News - 6/5/03 ... --