Iran's real economic growth in fiscal 2003 will have reached 6 percent, said the Economists Intelligence Unit in a report, IRNA reported from New York.
"This is partly owing to relatively strong oil production facilitated by OPEC generous quotas for much of the year," it added.
According to the report, the main driver of growth, however, is domestic demand, which has strengthened significantly since international oil prices picked up in 2000, allowing import restriction to be lifted and supporting robust growth in non-industrial and manufacturing activity.
"Real growth is anticipated to ease in 3.5 percent in 2004, chiefly as OPEC cut output sharply to arrest the downturn in oil prices. Weakening oil export revenue is also expected to lead to some controls being reintroduced to slow import spending growth, curtailing the availability of input." "Growth fixed investment will also increase relatively strongly, as the government strives to diversify its industrial base away from oil and attract foreign investment to expand and improve its infrastructure and utilities." EIU forecast.
The report said in 2005 growth will rise to 4 percent, largely because of strong expansion in real exports as members of OPEC increase output to regain its market share after sharp cuts in production in 2004, adding "growth fixed investment will continue to grow relatively strongly."
The report has estimated that inflation is anticipated to ease to 15 percent in 2004, as oil prices fall and government spending growth eases, constraining expansion in domestic demand.
In 2005 inflation is expected to ease to 12.5 percent as domestic demand eases, EIU said.
... Payvand News - 11/24/03 ... --