The Republic of Azerbaijan will be
conducting naval maneuvers in the Caspian Sea. The aim of the maneuver is declared as
upgrading the ability of the Azeris Coast Guards for protection of boundaries in
the Caspian Sea. But the question
is: What boundaries?
There are no borders in the Caspian
Sea yet. Even the Russian tailored
and imposed formula of Modified Median Line (MML) is only supposed to divide the
seabed in the case of the countries that have accepted it (including Azerbaijan)
and it has nothing to do with the maritime territories, over-flight, navigation
of the commercial and military units of the coastal and non-coastal states and
so on.
The Caspian Sea littoral states have
not yet succeeded to define commonly accepted formula for the legal regime of
the Caspian Sea. Azerbaijan has no
arrangements with Iran and Turkmenistan in the Caspian Sea. The existing agreements of Azerbaijan
with the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan are only about the Seabed. Iran believes that MML is not able to
create an equitable situation in the division of the Caspian, and Turkmenistan
believes several oil fields that Azerbaijan controls them according to the MML
must be the Turkmenistan's share.
The failure in the agreement has led
to several instances of conflict like 2001 incident of Iran-Azerbaijan dispute
and the Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan dispute. The latter led to the closure of the
respective embassies in their capitals for some time.
Another phenomenon of the failure
was the militarization and naval maneuvers. This was first started by the Russian
Federation. The biggest maneuver
since the collapse of the USSR was conducted immediately after the Asghabat
Summit Conference failed even to produce a final document. Now it's the turn for Azeris. As always, every military maneuver has a
hypothetical enemy. Who is
the enemy for the Azerbaijan Republic?
It is not definitely the Russian Federation because the Russian
Federation is a great nuclear power with the ability to kill all population of
the earth 10 times, and its naval fleet in the Caspian Sea is a powerful
force. Kazakhstan has no special
problems with the Azeris, but in the south Caspian there are several
disputes:
Azerbaijan believes that the seabed
must be divided according to the MML.
This gives Azerbaijan 21% of the Caspian Sea and control over all 15
major oil fields that it is claming now, including the Alborz Field claimed by
Iran. This area is not the biggest
share of the seabed for a single country in the Caspian (the biggest share goes
to Kazakhstan with almost 29% of the Caspian seabed), but it is the home to the
vast resources of the Caspian oil (compared to the Iranian hypothetical share of
the seabed, using the MML, which is almost 13 percent and free from any major
known resources. The deep Sea in
the Iranian part makes the exploration and exploitation even more
difficult). Azerbaijan's position
in this field is supported by the Russian Federation, the founder of the MML in
the Caspian Sea, and it is also supported by US. US has clearly rejected Iranian
positions for the division of the Caspian Sea and almost all other matters
(routes of the oil and gas pipelines, navigation of the non-littoral states,
military presence and so on).
So far, a clear case of
confrontation has happened in July 2001 between Iran and Azerbaijan. The incident, which has been played down
by both sides, had many elements of a dangerous hostility. Iranian gunboats asked the British
research vessel that worked for Azeris to leave the disputed area. The Iranian aircraft flew over the area
constantly. The Azeris claimed that
the Iranian aircraft had violated the airspace of Azerbaijan and threatened the
country. A short while later,
several Turkish Air Force jets flew to Baku, apparently to take part in an air
show, but everybody in the involved countries knew that it was a demonstration
of support for Azerbaijan by the big Turkish brother. The Azeris extensively welcomed the
Turkish show of support and arranged street demonstrations, shouting slogans
against the Islamic Republic of Iran and they condemned the violation of their
"rights." The British
Petroleum, which operated the research ship, declared that it would not return
to the concerned area until the two sides have made some kind of agreement. A cursory look reveals that the
characteristics of this incident look exactly like the stated aim of the
maneuvers of the Azerbaijan forces in the Caspian Sea.
At the same time, the problems of
the two states are not limited to the Caspian per se. The special interest of Azerbaijan to
affect the Azeri section of Iran is an important problem for both sides. The Azeris on both sides of the
border have common culture and language.
In fact a large part of the present Azerbaijan Republic consists of the
territories separated from Iran, after 20 years of unequal wars between the Iran
and Tsarist Russia, and two imposed treaties. Therefore, there are important unifying
feelings on both sides.
Although at the moment Azerbaijan
Republic only tacitly confirms the inclination to attract the Iranian Azeris,
and the government of Iran (and sometimes people of Iran) deny that there are
such important social forces in the region, the issue is as alive as it can
be.
The Iranian Azeris, who have been
deprived of their fundamental rights and freedoms, are also humiliated, despite
being an important part of the Iranian population, and they are stopped from
using the local language. They have
been subject to mockery as idiots (usually resembled to donkey as a symbol of
idiocy). Now, the political
movements of the Iranian Azeris, like the Chehreghani group, are benefiting from
the discriminatory and humiliating behaviors to follow their political
goals. The problem of Iranian
Azeris may turn into an international crisis in a short time unless the Iranian
government takes serious steps to defuse the situation.
Another point of contention is the
foreign policy of the two countries.
Azerbaijan considers itself a European country and wants to become a
member of the European Union (EU) and NATO as soon as possible. Therefore, it
has been inclined to invite the Western forces to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has taken part in any NATO
program that it could, and it has invited US and NATO to establish a military
base in Absheroon Peninsula in the Caspian Sea. Also due to the military stand off with
Armenia over Nagorno Karabagh, it has entered into an Axis of
Azerbaijan-Turkey-Israel. Iran on
the other hand is afraid of the Western presence and considers this as a part of
preparations for possible military intervention in all or parts of Iran by US
(after getting the tacit agreement of the Russians who have always wished to see
the disintegration of Iran). Iran
is worried about the standardization of the Azeris army with NATO rules and the
existing reports about contacts with Israel, which has constantly threatened to
attack the nuclear facilities of Iran.
Let us add to this picture the
prospects of starting to use the Baku-Jeyhan pipeline. The famous pipeline, which has been
called by some experts as the most important development in the Caspian region
since the collapse of the USSR, will be operational in 2005. The pipeline, which will be the major
outlet of the Caspian oil for the foreseeable future, is the symbols of several
points:
- Defeat of Iran in the pipeline
diplomacy (It will probably mean the death of Iranian swap plans and
discarding the pipelines that Iran is building unilaterally)
- Defeat of Russians in the
implementation of their policies in the reign.
- Victory of US-Azerbaijan-Turkey
axis in implementation of a project based on political considerations (support
of the US allies, depriving the US opponents from the transportation of oil
from the landlocked states of the Caspian Sea region).
Undoubtedly, the NATO and Azerbaijan
will be in charge of providing security for the expensive pipeline, and the
Azeris maneuvers are somehow based on the same notion up to a limit.
There are two more points that
should be added: The war against
terrorism and the combat against the trafficking of the narcotic drugs. Terrorism hotbeds are very close to the
Caspian Sea area and all countries around the Caspian Sea have to make
themselves ready to confront the effects of the international terrorism
activities. Also, since the
independence of the new republics in the south of the former USSR, the
traffickers of the narcotic drugs are showing new interests to use the Caspian
route rather the traditional the Golden Triangle Afghanistan-Iran-Turkey
route.
Conclusion
The end result is that the main
hypothetical enemy in the Azerbaijan's military maneuvers in the Caspian Sea is
the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Although, there are several other issues of concern for the Azeris, what
is stated as the official reason of the maneuvers is compatible with a possible
situation that Iran may cause. At
the same time, the different policies of the two countries are going to
constitute a great source of threat between the only two Shiite states of the
world.
About the
author:
Bahman Aghai Diba, PhD Int. Law, is
a consultant in international law to the World Resources Company in the
Washington DC area.
... Payvand News - 5/12/04 ... --
