Iran News ...


11/5/04

The Nuclear Case of Iran and the Survival of the Islamic Regime

By Bahman Aghai Diba, PhD. Int. Law

Many people have addressed the nuclear case of Iran from the wrong angle. This is the reason for failure in getting the reasonable conclusions and also the root for the repeated failure of the negotiations. The central point in the present nuclear case of Iran is the survival of the ruling regime.

The Mullahs that rule Iran, according to their religious ideology designed by the invaders, do not care for anything except than preserving the power. Anyone, inside or outside of Iran, that looks at the present nuclear case of Iran, from any other angle than preservation of the regime reaches wrong calculations and faces contradictions.

The fact that Iran needs nuclear energy (due to the growing domestic oil consumption, dependence on the oil exports, the low price of the nuclear energy, the need to use oil in other ways as a national capital and many other reasons) has nothing to do with the efforts of the present regime of Iran for continuing its nuclear program. Providing "electricity" is not so important for the regime of Iran to risk its existence. The only aim of the nuclear program of Iran is to gain a guarantee against the internal insurgency and possible intervention of the foreign forces for changing the regime.

The regime is ready to use all kinds of forces to remain in the top. The internal resistance in Iran is so brutally suppressed that even the reformists (the most lukewarm form of the forces that follow the change in the framework of the "Velayate Faghih"- the government of Mullahs), are fully neutralized. Undoubtedly, after the Presidential elections in Iran (June 2005) that the conservatives get ride of the Khatami, the regime will start as new wave of suppression and make sure that all of the resistance forces, including the reformists that have exposed themselves are out of the scene. The clear signs of this policy are already visible, but compared to what will be imposed after the next Presidential elections these are nothing. The situation after the next election will be like a creeping coup d'etate by the conservative side of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Therefore, the people of Iran, inside and outside of the country, are desperately looking to a savoir out of the country. The regime of the Mullahs is well aware of this option and its main policy in front of that option is the nuclear program.

The ruling circles in Iran have proved in the past that do not care what the people think about their polices. Therefore the fact that a number of the conservatives and reformists (that are both followers of the Velayate Faghih) and also a number of the people from all political spectrums (even the dissidents) support the nuclear program of Iran is meaningless. This unity is composed of wrong perceptions, not common interests and clear understanding.

The Conservatives (led by Hayate Motalefeh, which has disguised itself as a party recently) are the ruling power and they want to remain in power and therefore they want the nuclear power (not electricity) to back them up.

The reformists (that follow the Velayate Faghih) had never any real power in Iran. During the last several years that the reformists pretended to have power (only because a few of the reformists were given powerless positions or positions that could be neutralized by the conservations), all of their plans were rejected and finally they were totally and en mass disqualified. The humiliated and embarrassed reformists are trying to buy some kind of prestige for themselves by supporting what looks like "a national plan". The problem is that the reformists, as persons believing in Velayate Faghih are not entitled to support any "national plans". They are bound by the rules of the game to follow the instructions of the " Guardian" or the Supreme Leader. Velayate Faghih means that the people are like "minors" and they need a " Guardian " and the Guardian is the Supreme Leader who is the personification of all divine forces on the earth. The regime has proved that it has not the capacity to get reformed from the inside and the reformisms that support the Valyate Faghih are wasting the time and energy. It is not important for the ruling circles of Iran (and the people of Iran) what they think.

The ordinary people of Iran who support the nuclear programs and sometimes they say: "Israel and India and Pakistan have the nuclear power, why not Iran?", they speak out of national pride and national sentiments. The national pride is good for promoting certain programs and policies in the right time, but it has proved to push the nations down the abyss if provoked in the wrong time and especially when misused by the insincere forces. The ordinary people that support the nuclear program of Iran at the present juncture ignore the real problems of their society.

Are the people of Iran, especially those who claim we should have nuclear power, ready to tolerate the international sanctions? (The regime has no problem. They will bribe their way out by high oil prices and create lucrative black market deals administered by the Aghazadeh-ha, the relatives of the Mullahs. They have extensive experience in violating the sanctions through the dealings with the Iraqis in the era of Saddam.) The people of Iran are living under hardship. In spite of the good oil income, the majority of the people live under the poverty line. 30% of the people are unemployed. The corrupt economic system is giving all economic advantages to a certain group that act as the lackeys of the regime. Are these people ready to go under more pressures and see their children die because they want the Mullahs to have nuclear bombs, or " electricity"? Are the people of Iran ready to go to war to have a few low level nuclear bombs, put at the tip of several outdated North Korean missiles that are repainted and called Shahab 1, 2, 3, and more, that they never dare to use against any foreign state, but will be certainly used against the people inside Iran if they threaten the government of " the divinely assigned Mullahs and the deputies of the hidden imam on the earth"?

There is another interesting group that support the nuclear program of Iran. These are some of the Iranian living out of Iran. They are not going to be the target of any sanctions imposed on Iran, they are not going to send their children to the war fronts to be used along with donkeys as the minesweepers, but they want the Mullahs to go ahead with the nuclear programs. This group is in fact spending the credit that they do not have.

The only reason of the Islamic republic of Iran for pursuing the nuclear programs is guaranteeing the survival of the regime. The regime is ready to use the nuclear power against its own people if necessary and according to the Islamic instructions this is fully permitted. The problem is that there is regime in Iran that great powers of the world are concerned about it. They are not ready to let this regime have nuclear teeth. At the same time the regime is ready to use its nuclear power exactly against its own people to be in power. Therefore, this is the wrong time to defend nuclear power for Iran. Some people think the nuclear power will bring security for Iran. What if it is proved that is not case?

The nuclear program of Iran is not focused on the security for the country or state. It is about the security of a regime that is convinced it is going to get into serious conflict with the West, as the symbol of a certain way of life and thinking that stands in contrast to the ideology of the regime of Iran. Look at the following sentences. They are not from the opponents of the regime, human rights organizations, or the Israeli press. These are the direct words of Hassan Abbasi, the Director of Center of External Security Analysis of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, talking in the Tehran University (05/23/04):

"The leaders of the Islamic world should have the courage to declare: Islam and Western democracy are not compatible. Islam has nothing in common with the Universal Declaration of the Human Rights. Islam has nothing in common with the Western liberalism and this kind of freedom. Islam opposes these ideas...According to Nietzsche, the founding of a civil society leads to the death of God...the Koran has said: go to war...if it is possible to do something that the disbelievers feel fearful, then this kind of terrorism is holy terrorism.... Look at my hands. These are the hands that have created Hizbullah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad... You have 6000 nuclear warheads... those are our target. The guerrillas will destroy them.... We are working on recruiting the Mexicans and Argentineans for our cause... We will mobilize everyone who has a complaint against the America...we have identified all of their weak points... and we will give on those information to the combatant groups of the world." (http://khbabarnameh.gooya.com/nabavi/archives/real/abbasi-hassan.rm)

The proposals for negotiations that are concentrated on other issues except than the survival of the regime will get nowhere. At the same time, any formula that helps to guarantee the survival of the regime will be greatly welcomed by the regime of Iran. In fact this is the only issue that the Islamic Republic is interested to talk about. All other issues especially detailed and technical points of the nuclear program is aimed at keeping the people inside and outside of the country busy and disoriented.

The reason that the Mullahs are convinced that this is the way for guaranteeing their power is in the treatment of the West. What has happened in the past years has endorsed the view of the regime that the nuclear power can help to guarantee the survival of the regime. A look at the treatment of the USA with the North Korea as compared to Saddam's Iraq is a very good example. The North Korea has declared that it has nuclear warheads. It is no secret that the North Korea, along with the open and covert nuclear market of Pakistan, headed by that state's chief of the Nuclear Energy Agency, were instrumental in exporting the nuclear know-how to the other countries, including Iran. Yet the West is treating the regime of the North Korea with much respect and caution, while the miserable Saddam who did not have those weapons is sitting in prison and crying for the death of his terrible sons. This has a clear message for the Mullahs who are ruling over a volcano of sick and tired people in live at the verge of explosion.

There is no doubt that the demand of the Western states from Iran to stop its nuclear program is totally in contradiction to the NPT and the other norms and regulations of the international law, justice and equality. However, these notions do not run the world alone. No politician, any where in the world, including Iran, is not ordered by the Constitutional Law and the regime of the state to establish justice. All of the government officials, from the highest to the lowest echelons, in all countries are ordered and instructed to pursue the "national interests" and if they are proved to do anything except than that, they are set aside. The declared national interest of the dominant powers of the world in focused on the point that the nuclear program of Iran is not trustworthy and they are going to stop the program one way or another. The Iranian people and the government, as usual, must find the limitations of maneuver and the best option under these conditions. If the regime of Iran dose not care about the national interests, national security, and the welfare of people and it is only pursing the interests of the ruling circle, why should the others support such policy? The regime of Iran is preparing itself for a war and claims this to be out of bravery. But the reality is that war is a necessity for the fascism. It is one of the standard definitions of a fascist regime.

Iran is using the differences of the USA and the EU for killing the time and getting closer the nuclear bomb. The differences between the Western countries are very serious. The main question is that: are the Americans and Europeans ready to give guarantees to the regime of Iran for survival? The response of the Europeans is different than the USA. The US does not trust and does not need the Iranian regime and considers it as a source of terrorism and trouble. The Europeans do not trust the regime of Iran too. But they fear the USA, as the source of trouble, more than the regime of Iran. Apart from the sweet dealings of the European states with the regime of Iran (selling almost all of their good and bad products to Iran and getting the contracts in all fields, over the international prices, and delivering goods and services below the standards), the Europeans have a red line (using the jargon of the Iranian regime) in Iran against the American domination all over the region from the countries around the Caspian Sea to the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf, i.e. the reservoir of the world energy and the lifeline of the Europe. After losing Afghanistan and Iraq to the US (forget the discussions about the problems of the US in Afghanistan and Iraq. The US forces have ousted Taleban and Saddam and they have the control of two countries in their hands. This is the strategically important point), Iran is the place that the Europeans have chosen for resistance. The regime of Iran is well aware how desperately the Europeans need Iran and therefore, it keeps telling whatever it likes to the Europeans, before, during and after each negotiation about the nuclear issues and they do not go away. It looks like the relationship of an abusive husband with a wife that has nowhere to go. The Europeans cannot afford to vote against the Iranian regime in the IAEA or the UN Security General.

What the Europeans do in the negotiations with Iran is that they try to sell to Iran the degree of maneuver that they have on the USA. Proposing the so-called "carrots" like business relations with Iran, and supporting Iran's entry to the WTO are almost ridiculous. The Europeans are engaged in a cutthroat completion to sell their products to Iran and Iran does not need to be a member of the WTO. In fact, under the present conditions of the Iranian industries, it is like an economic suicide for Iran to enter the WTO. The membership to the WTO is pursued only by a certain part of the Iranian government (not the conservatives) due to un-economic considerations.

As far as the Americans are concerned, they must make their decision now. The USA cannot attack the nuclear sites of Iran (or let the Israel pretend to have done it) and go home. The Americans must confront the entire Iranian regime right now or start shaking the hands of Mullahs in Washington.

Conclusion:

1. The Europeans do not have the necessary capacity and they are not in a position to tackle with the regime of Iran on the nuclear issues.

2. All of the negotiations of the Europeans with Iran in this case are meaningless and Iran is well aware of it. These negotiations are good for killing the time.

3. The Iranian people should set aside the national pride about the nuclear case for the moment. It is not the right time.

... Payvand News - 11/5/04 ... --



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