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The next session of IAEA and the case of Iran

By Bahman Aghai Diba

According to numerous sources the next session of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will be very important for the nuclear case of Iran. Many sources claim that due to the following reasons the session will adopt very important decisions against Iran:

1- The Neo-conservatives of Iran have gained the control of Majles through sham elections and they are poised to take the Presidency even easier than that. These figures have already signaled that they are not going to adopt the additional Protocol to the NPT that Iran has already signed and even they will try to get Iran out of the NPT.

2- The Government of Iran is planning to resume the enrichment of uranium, which was voluntarily suspended during the trip of the European countries' foreign ministers to Iran.

3- The Iranian government has declared that the European countries have not acted according to their commitments to help Iran close the case in the IAEA and also to give assistance in new nuclear technology to Iran and therefore, Iran no more respects the Sa'adabad Accord regarding the nuclear issues.

4- Iranians are intervening in the disturbances of Iraq, and the session of IAEA is good opportunity to give a warning to Iran to refrain from such acts.

5- The Israelis are waiting for a decisive action by the IAEA, and if they do not act as such, the unilateral strike of Israel against the nuclear sites of Iran, which were planned long ago, will be implemented.

However, I believe nothing important will happen in the session of the IAEA in the September of 2004 regarding Iranian case because:

1- The US elections will be in November and it will take more time for whoever wins the elections to adopt a policy in this case. It is not really important who wins the elections. The policy of the USA about Iran is more important and complicated to be left for the hasty decisions. The Americans have been wondering for many years what to do in Iran, and it seems that they have not reached any conclusion yet. Noting the problems in Iraq and Afghanistan and the following points, US will be paralyzed about decision-making on Iran for more than a year to come. The Americans will do nothing serious in the next session of the IAEA, except for repeating the previous positions. Most probably they are not going to ask the IAEA's Board of Governors to send the case of Iran to the Security Council of the United Nations.

2- The American Neo-conservatives are engaged in serious talks with the neo-conservatives of Iran. A serious part of the American policy makers are sick and tired of the game that Europeans and the Russians are playing in Iran. The latter are enjoying the vast market of Iran and the USA is taking the hostilities of the Islamic Republic which is not really against the USA, it is against the whole Western life style whether in Japan, Italy, south Africa or even Tehran. There is an inclination in the US State Department for better relations with Iran. The Neo-conservatives of Iran have gained back the control and they intend to cool down the situation in order to show their skills in diplomacy. They also want to create a better economic situation and concentrate on eradicating the opponents in bulk. The result is serious talks of the two sides at various levels. Both sides favor the secret diplomacy. The Americans, under the Republicans like Ronald Reagan, have tried this policy before [the case of Mac Farlane, the US National Security Adviser, flying to Iran, carrying an aircraft load of missiles and other arms, an ornamented pistol and a Bible personally singed by Reagan for Khomeini]. George Bush intends to be good apprentice of Ronald Reagan. On the Iranian side, the neo-conservatives led by the Supreme Leader do not like the people to discuss much about the important policies and they prefer to declare something after it is done and forget whatever the people say. The two sides will wait to see the results of these talks before any serious steps.

3- Europe is completely against the US actions against Iran. Iran is the last important point that Europeans have to fight. If they lose Iran, they have to pack and go home for a long time and wait for US to throw them a bone. The Europeans tried to stand in front of US in the case of Iraq. They neutralized the UN Security Council. They made a great scholarly effort to prove that the actions of the US were against the International law [although US was doing the same thing that the Europeans have been doing for many years and they will do whenever they get a chance]. There is no doubt that the Europeans especially the French are not more ethical, religious, or international law-abiding people than the Americans. The French policies in Iraq and Iran, and Africa are good examples how ethical they are. The Europeans failed in Iraq. They are determined to resist seriously in the case of Iran, and stop the process of Iraqization of Iran by US. They are pretending to be in the same line as US in the nuclear case of Iran. However, the domination of Iran by the US is a bigger threat for the Europe than US. They are going to play the diplomatic games that they have practiced for a long time in the next session of the IAEA aimed at approval of nothing serious in the IAEA's session against Iran. Later they will line up to get the cookies from the Mullahs of Iran.

4- The Russians are against the US actions in the IAEA against Iran. The loss of Iran means the second collapse for the Russians after the disintegration of the USSR. The Russians are planning to help the nuclear program of Iran. They have agreed with Iran to build 6 to 10 more nuclear reactors. The nuclear relation of the two countries has saved the bankrupt nuclear industries of the Russian Federation. They can now stop their scientists from fleeing and also enter the market of nuclear reactors for many other countries based on the experiences gained in Iran. At the same time, this program is a good tool for the Russians to gain advantages from the West. They are going to try to convince the IAEA that there is nothing wrong in Iran and no serious action is necessary.

5- The Chinese are against the US policy. China is a big loser if US takes the control of more areas in the region. The demand of China for oil has doubled in the last couple of years and it is going to double again in a short period. This is pushing the oil process along with the other factors toward 80 to 100 dollars barrel oil. Under the US control, this will be a life and death matter for the China. The Chinese have many hopes in the government of Mullahs in Iran. The Motalefeh Party, which is a Mafia type organization in the Islamic regime and the main source of all decisions of the regime, has the best relations with the Chinese Community Party. Some of the Iranian neo-conservatives have claimed that they wanted a Chinese type of government in Iran. The Chinese may get the chance to build some the nuclear reactors for Iran. They are not going to support any serious action in the IAEA or the UNSC against Iran.

6- There is no concern among the member countries of the IAEA's Board of Governors about the Israeli attack against the nuclear sites of Iran. Israel has not the intention and capability of attacking Iran's nuclear sites. The most important thing is that they do not know where the nuclear sites are. There is no doubt that due to the exiting threats the known sites are probably nothing important. The real nuclear program of Iran is probably going on in hundreds of places simultaneously and taking out a couple of them will mean nothing important. The case of Israeli attack of Iraq (Osiraq 1982) is dead and it did not get anywhere in the long run. It must be noted that the nuclear sites of Iran are well protected. Iran has got the agreement of the Russians to get information from the military satellites of the Russian Federation about a possible Israeli preparation for attack or actual attacks in advance. During the next few years a Russian version of the Patriot anti-missile system will be stationed in Iran to protect the sensitive sites. These sites are already protected by the latest version of the Russian air defense missiles. In case, the USA decides to attack the nuclear sites of Iran, this means a process that cannot end with several air strikes or missile attacks. US knows that either it should do nothing in the military terms or go all the way for the regime change in Iran. Until the results of the American unilateralism are made clear in the testing ground of Iraq, it is far-fetched to expect any attack by US against Iran in the near future.

7- Any serious action in the IAEA that paves the way for referring the case of Iran to the UN Security Council and possibility of economic sanctions against Iran will shoot up the oil prices to over 60 dollars. The actual stopping of the Iranian oil, either because of sanctions or any other incident (including the intentional stopping of oil export by the Mullahs of Iran or the US attack against Iran will make the oil prices between 80 to 100 dollars a barrel. These figures are horrible for the world economy.

Therefore I believe the next session of the IAEA will take nothing special against Iran. The Council will not take any decision to refer the case to the UN Security Council, inter alia, because the UNSC will make no important decision in this case. Under the present international conditions the Americans are not able to get anything tangible in the IAEA's Board of Governors or the Security Council of the United Nations against the nuclear program of Iran.

I have two more points that are indirectly related to this case and noteworthy:

1- Some Iranian officials, including a few top theoreticians of the neo-conservatives talk about nuclear weapons instead of the usual slogans about the peaceful purposes of the nuclear energy in Iran. Although Iran needs the nuclear technology, the reason that the mullahs insist on it is not electricity for the people of Iran. As we have experienced during the Iran-Iraq war, the regime has no respect for the people's lives, let alone the electricity. The mullahs want something to guarantee their rule and slavery (emulation) of the masses of the Iranians, with or without electricity.

2- It must be noted that Mullahs of Iran have no fear of the case of Iran going to the UNSC or even the start of a war. Khomeini called the Iran-Iraq war many times a God given gift to the present Iranian regime. He was right. The war led to elimination of the opponents, finding job and entertainment for a large number of people. Making a great number of Iranians engaged in fighting, fleeing out of country, mourning, taking care of the dead and invalids, the broken families and monopolizing everything by the Mullahs and their close families and a bunch of the crooks. The present government of Iran, dominated by the conservatives is looking for another war to get ride of all kinds of problems. In fact, if you look at the political dictionaries, one of the basic characteristics of fascist regimes is the "war with the aliens". Fascism cannot live a long time without war.

... Payvand News - 9/1/04 ... --

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