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11/3/05

Azerbaijan Under International Pressure To Conduct Fair Poll

By Robert Parsons, Radio Free Europe

Azerbaijan goes to the polls on 6 November in the first parliamentary elections in the country since November 2000 and the first major national poll since the election of Ilham Aliyev as president in October 2003. At stake are the 125 seats in the Milli Meclis, or National Assembly, and Azerbaijan's reputation as an aspiring democracy.

Azerbaijan does not have a strong track record for holding free and fair elections. Since September 1996, international monitors have assessed every poll to be less than free and fair. Gerard Stoudmann, then director of the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, unofficially characterized the November 2000 parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan as "a crash course in various types of falsification."

In many respects, the outcome of the vote will be a judgment on his record in office. President Aliyev has repeatedly asserted that he sees his country's future with Europe and has welcomed Azerbaijan's inclusion, together with the two other South Caucasian states, Armenia and Georgia, in the European Union's New Neighborhood Policy.

But the EU is losing patience with the slow pace of reform in Azerbaijan and the country's shaky democratic credentials. EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner told the European Parliament on 26 October that the Azerbaijani government was violating basic political freedoms in the run-up to the elections. The conduct of the elections, she said, would be a litmus test of the country's will to bring itself into line with the EU.

Series Of Arrests

Ferrero-Waldner's harsh criticism followed the arrest of government ministers, a senior state official, and an oil magnate in late October on charges of conspiring with an opposition leader to overthrow the state. The opposition leader in question, Rasul Quliyev, has been in exile since 1996 but reportedly tried to return to Azerbaijan on 17 October to participate in the elections.

Quliyev says he hired a private jet to fly him to Baku but turned back when he learnt that troops had taken over the airport and that the government planned to arrest him the minute he set foot in the country. The arrests and charges appear to have cowed the opposition at a critical moment in the electoral campaign.

Nevertheless, Azerbaijan is under considerable international pressure to ensure that these elections are a substantial improvement on the last parliamentary vote in 2000, which was described at the time as seriously flawed. In those elections, the ruling Yeni Azerbaycan Party (YAP) won 108 of the 125 seats in the Milli Mejlis.

This time around, President Aliyev has pledged to make the elections free and fair and a host of international organizations is on hand to try to hold him to his word -- among them, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), and the U.S. Embassy in Baku.

The OSCE, which has attempted to mediate between the opposition and the government in the run-up to the elections, has tried to nudge the authorities toward concessions. It praised a presidential decree of 11 May, in which Aliyev acknowledged "mistakes and deficiencies" in the conduct of elections and ordered local officials not to detain opposition activists for carrying out their electoral duties.

But the OSCE has criticized the rancorous atmosphere in which the election is being fought, the denial of access to opposition candidates to airtime on state and public television, the government's refusal to permit the opposition to hold demonstrations in the center of the capital, Baku, and the violence of the police in breaking up unsanctioned rallies.

Aliyev has responded -- somewhat belatedly -- to some of the OSCE's demands. The government has published an electoral register, will ink the fingers of voters to prevent multiple voting, and will now permit nongovernmental organizations funded from abroad to monitor the poll.

Opposition Challenge

What though of the opposition? How credible is its challenge to the ruling YAP?

In the past, an inability to agree on strategy and policies has splintered the opposition into small and largely ineffectual groups. This time, three of the biggest parties -- the reformist wing of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, theDemocratic Party of Azerbaijan,and Musavat -- have united in the Azadliq bloc and are presenting a more serious challenge to the YAP.

The "color revolutions" in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, too, have boosted morale and convinced many that change is possible in Azerbaijan.

And the opposition can cite an impressive list of government policy failings: Azerbaijan is still listed as one of the most corrupt societies in the world, Nagorno-Karabakh and other territories lost in the conflict with Armeniaare still in Armenian hands 11 years after the war ended, and more than 500,000 refugees from the fighting are still waiting to go home. Add to that the gnawing poverty that, according to the International Monetary Fund, still afflicts almost half the population and the basis should exist for the opposition to mount a challenge.

Yet even if these were free and fair elections, most observers believe the ruling party would still win -- albeit with a much reduced majority. Opinion polls show that Aliyev is a popular president who is now beginning to ride a wave of petroleum cash that ought to make it easy for him to win popular support. And the real hydrocarbon boom is only just about to start. Oil from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is due to reach the Turkish seaport of Ceyhan later this year. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, government revenues -- already substantial -- are expected to grow by an average of 128 percent from 2006 to 2009.

Azerbaijan: A Challenged Opposition
By Robert Parsons, Radio Free Europe

Ignored and marginalized for the last 10 years, Azerbaijan's political opposition has regained a modicum of respectability in the run-up to the 6 November parliamentary elections.

Its cause has been helped by a U.S. administration willing to give more attention to advancing democracy in the former Soviet Union. Isa Qambar, the leader of the Musavat party, and Ali Kerimli, leader of the reformist wing of the Popular Front, have twice been to Washington this year, while Lala Sovket Haciyeva of the Liberal Party of Azerbaijan has been once.

The visits are signals to the Azerbaijani government that the United States takes the opposition seriously -- and an encouragement to the opposition leaders to engage in the political process rather than throw stones at it from outside.

Divided History

The opposition has helped its own cause by putting aside -- for the moment at least -- some of the fractious disputes that have divided it in the past. The Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, Musavat, and Democratic Party of Azerbaijan have come together in a solid coalition bloc, Azadliq, which poses a credible challenge to the ruling Yeni Azerbaycan Party (YAP). Azadliq is calling for a complete change of government.

The New Politics bloc (YeS) of Sovket Haciyeva, Eldar Namazov, and Etibar Mammadov are others that have a good chance of winning seats. Unlike many of its rivals, YeS has a clear platform of reform outlined in its platform document: "From Authoritarianism to Democracy, From Corruption to a Legal State," but is short of candidates with a strong enough profile to mount a real challenge.

The once powerful communist party, which won just two seats in the 2000 elections, is no longer a force.

And conspicuously absent is any sort of religious party. Azerbaijan is a predominantly Muslim country and the strength of religion has undoubtedly grown in the 14 years since independence. But Article 14 of the electoral code states that no one who has a religious role in society can stand as a candidate. The Azerbaijan Islamic Party, which was banned in 1995, was the last religious party to stand in an Azerbaijani election.

There are other reasons, too, why the opposition can be expected to do better in this election.

* The "color revolutions" in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan have had an important psychological affect -- nowhere in the former Soviet Union does the power of the state seem quite so immutable as it once did. That may encourage voters to take a chance with the opposition.

* The governing party is tarred by the brush of power. It is seen as corrupt, inefficient, and indifferent to the needs of ordinary people. Nothing it has done in the last 10 years can have convinced voters otherwise. Despite swelling revenues from oil sales, the living standards of most people in Azerbaijan have not significantly improved. The International Monetary Fund has said that almost 50 percent of the population live below the poverty line.

* Eleven years have passed since the cease-fire that brought an end to the hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh, but the government is no nearer to gaining back the lost territories (16 percent of Azerbaijan's land mass). More than half a million refugees are still waiting to return, many of them living in abject poverty.

Tall Order

In normal conditions, a government with a record like that would not expect to retain its majority. But few doubt that YAP will triumph again at the polls on 6 November.

The odds are stacked in its favor. The OSCE has criticized the excessive violence of the police in breaking up recent political rallies in the capital, Baku. But the opposition has faced its greatest problems in the regions, away from the spotlight of international attention. President Aliyev has ordered regional governors to assume a neutral role in the elections, but opposition candidates complain that pro-opposition journalists and activists putting up election stickers are regularly beaten, that permission is rarely granted to hold rallies, and that candidates are routinely harassed.

Despite an improvement on the past, the ruling party dominates access to state and public television, which are by far the media outlets with the greatest access to Azerbaijani households.

Nevertheless, even allowing for election fraud,this election should be a real competition. Over 2,000 candidates are contesting the 125 seats -- all of them in single-mandate contests. Azerbaijan abandoned proportional representation in 2002.

YAP's biggest strength, apart from the massive advantage of incumbency, is the promise of oil wealth just around the corner. Azerbaijan's economy is beginning to accelerate very quickly and will continue to do so for many years to come.

GDP increased by more than 10 percent last year and President Aliyev is talking of developing a state oil fund that could eventually top $30 billion, a huge sum in a country as small as Azerbaijan with a population of only around 8 million. The idea is that the fund should be used for education, poverty reduction, and infrastructure projects.

YAP's message is: don't rock the boat and your life will be transformed. In a clan-based society like Azerbaijan's, where people in the rural areas tend to vote the way they're told, that is a compelling argument.


Copyright (c) 2005 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036. www.rferl.org

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