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By Ahto
Lobjakas
TBILISI,
November 24, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- Since Georgia's 2003 Rose Revolution, the
country's president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has turned away from Russia and has
followed an unflinchingly pro-Western course. But the frozen conflicts of Abkhazia and South
Ossetia are making it hard for Georgia to make a clean break.
And Georgia's enthusiasm to join the West has caused
a degree of consternation at the European Union. The EU has warded off talk of
membership prospects with a recently signed European Neighborhood Policy action
plan.
Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli has denied
further ambitions -- but has made it clear the reason lies with the EU, not
Georgia.
"Not at this stage, at least. Definitely, I think
that there is certain enlargement fatigue in the EU itself and I think that any
discussion of something else [than] the European Neighborhood Policy action plan
now with the EU is just totally counterproductive," Noghaideli says.
Noghaideli said the EU will remain the "primary
focus" for Georgian foreign policy. The country also wants to join NATO and that
is a more likely option, thanks to U.S. support.
Frozen Conflicts
But Georgia's Western leanings have caused relations
with Russia to worsen -- in particular over Georgia's breakaway regions of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia.
The conflicts are the biggest obstacle on Georgia's
path away from Russian domination. Intermittent talks with South Ossetia's and
Abkhazia's separatist leaders -- always in the presence of Russian officials --
have brought little success.
At this point South Ossetia is the more acute of the
two conflicts. A Western official in Tbilisi, who asked not to be named, says
there is concern Georgia could be preparing for war.
Building Up The Military
He points to Georgia's recent purchases of heavy
weaponry, what he calls the intensive "militarization" of Georgian society, and
the deployment of a military hospital, complete with a morgue, to Georgia's
biggest military base in Gori, which is close to South Ossetia.
The Western official says that the separatist
leadership in South Ossetia's capital Tshinkvali is "genuinely afraid" an attack
is imminent.

But other experts have said that Georgia wouldn't risk an
armed conflict as it would put an end to the country's bid to join NATO and the
EU.
Prime Minister Noghaideli says the situation in
South Ossetia is complex. "Inside the conflict zone it is like a chess board,
there is a Georgian village, Ossetian village, Georgian village again, so
everything is mixed up. And in the case of villages even it is not like that
[there are] purely ethnically Georgian villages and purely ethnically Ossetian
villages. It's not like that, there are mixed-up populations in territories
[controlled by both sides], so we are talking of a very complex and difficult
situation," Noghaideli says.
Russia's Role
The November 12 independence referendum in South
Ossetia has been followed in the official's words, by a "political vacuum." He
says South Ossetia now effectively has "four presidents" -- Saakashvili, the
separatist Eduard Kokoity, local Georgian-backed rival Dmitry Sanakoyev, and,
inevitably, Russia's Vladimir Putin.
But the Western official notes that much of the
region's reputed allegiance to Russia is pragmatic, rather than political. He
says the locals' preference for Russian passports is mostly explained by access
to Russian pensions and social security payments -- both considerably higher
than in Georgia.
Georgian passport holders are currently also unable
to travel in Russia, as Moscow denies them visas. Travel in Russia is for many
an essential source of income through small-scale smuggling.
Russia, in turn, does not treat Tshinkvali overly
kindly. Having banned Georgian imports, it now also rejects South Ossetian
agricultural produce.
In Georgia's other frozen conflict, Abkhazia, the
situation has also become more tense in recent months with the appearance of a
Tbilisi-backed alternative government in a Georgian-controlled part of the
region. The alternative government is backed by Georgian troops. Unlike South
Ossetia, Abkhazia does not want to join Russia, but is angling for
independence.
To resolve either conflict, Georgia needs Russian
cooperation. But that increasingly looks less and less likely.
Noghaideli says the Georgian leadership is convinced
Moscow is trying to do more than just stoke separatist tension. He says Russia
has "never hidden they want regime change in Georgia": "Regime change could only
happen here through possible violence. [But], actually I would say it is
impossible. That [is the] attempts [are there], but it is not
possible."
WTO Negotiations
Georgia is not entirely without leverage. In a
recent move, Tbilisi threatened to block Russia's bid to join the World Trade
Organization (WTO), demanding control of the separatist regions' borders with
Russia.
Tbilisi is trying to force Russia to honor a 2004
agreement, which says the conflicts are an internal Georgian matter.
Copyright (c) 2006 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036. www.rferl.org
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