By Mahdi Darius
Nazemroaya, Centre
for Research on Globalization

Iran is bracing itself for an
expected American-led aerial campaign. The latter is in the
advanced stages of military planning.
If there were to be
war between the United States and Iran, the aerial
campaign would unleash fierce combat. It will be fully interactive on
multiple fronts. It will be a difficult battle that will see active movement in
the air from both sides.
If war were to occur,
the estimates of casualties envisaged by American and British war planners are
set to be high.
The expected wave of aerial attacks
will resemble the tactics of the Israeli air-war against Lebanon and
would follow the same template, but on a larger scale of
execution.
The
U.S. government and the
Pentagon had an active role in graphing, both militarily and politically, the
template of confrontation in Lebanon. The Israeli siege against
Lebanon is in many regards a
dress rehearsal for a planned attack on Iran.[1]
A war against Iran is one that could also include military
operations against Syria. Multiple theatres will engulf
many of the neighbours of Iran and Syria, including Iraq and
Israel/Palestine.
It must also be noted that an attack
on Iran would be of a scale
which would dwarf the events in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Levant. A
full blown war with Iranian will not only swallow up and incorporate these other
conflicts. It will envelop the Middle East and
Central Asian region into an extensive confrontation
An American-led aerial
campaign against Iran, if it were to be implemented,
would be both similar and contrasting in its outline and intensity to earlier
Anglo-American confrontations.
The war
would start with intense bombardment and attacks on Iran's
infrastructure, but would be different in its scope of operations and
intensity.
The characteristics of
such a conflict would also be unpredictable because of Iran’s
capabilities to respond. And in all likelihood,
Iran would launch its own
potent attacks and extend the theatre of war by attacking U.S. and American-led troops in
Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Persian
Gulf.
The
United States must also take
into account the fact that Iran unlike Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lebanon would be an opponent with the capability
to resist the the U.S. sponsored attacks on the
ground, but also on the sea and in the air
Unlike the former opponents faced by
the United States and its
partners, Iran will be able
to target the launch pads used by the United States. Iran would also be able to attack the
U.S. supply and logistical
hubs in the Persian Gulf. American ships
carrying supplies, troops, and warplanes will be vulnerable to Iranian
counter-attacks by way of Iranian missiles, warplane, and naval forces. It is no
mere coincidence that Iran has been demonstrating its military capabilities
during the “Blow of Zolfaqar” war games
conducted in late August, 2006.[2]

Iranian
Preparations for an American-led Air Campaign
The
United States has continually
threatened to attack Iran. These threats are made under
the pretext of halting the development of nuclear weapons in Iran. The development of nuclear weapons
by Iran is something the IAEA
and its inspectors have refuted as untrue[3], but the
United States insists on
continuing the charade as grounds for a military endgame with
Iran.
The threat of an
American-led attack against Iran with the heavy involvement of
Israel and
Britain, amongst others, has
primed Iran to prepare itself for the
anticipated moment. Over the years, this has led Iran to stride for self-sufficiency in producing
its own advanced military hardware and the development of asymmetrical tactics
to combat the United
States.
The threat of an
American-led attack against Iran with the heavy involvement of
Israel and
Britain, amongst others, has
primed Iran to prepare itself for the
anticipated moment. Over the years, this has led Iran to stride for self-sufficiency in
producing its own advanced military hardware and the development of asymmetrical
tactics to combat the United
States.
Iranian defence planners
have stated publicly that they have learned from the cases of neighbouring
Afghanistan and
Iraq. They are acutely aware of the
U.S. military’s heavy reliance on
aerial strikes.

August 2006 saw the start of the
virtually unprecedented events of the Blow of Zolfaqar war games throughout
Iran and its border provinces.[4]
These were similar to war games conducted in April 2006.
The latter were also
held during a period of tense confrontation between Iran and the United
States.
April 2006 was a
period that could have resulted in military conflict between both the
United States and
Iran. In April 2006,
Iran had not only dismissed
the deadline set on its nuclear program, but it announced in defiance to the
United
States that it had successfully enriched
uranium for the first time.
Iran has taken
the opportunity of the launching of both the April 2006 and Blow of Zolfaqar war
games to display its preparedness and full capability to engage in
combat. Additionally, Iran has taken
the occasion to fine tune its defences and to mobilize its military
apparatus. This exhibition of Iranian military might is intended to deter
America’s intent to trigger another
Middle Eastern war.
During the
war games the Iranian military has adjusted and modified its air defence
shield[5]
for maximum dexterity and efficiency in preparation to stop incoming missiles
and invading aircraft. The war games have been deliberately taken as an
opportunity for demonstrations of the Iranian capacity to wage war in the air.


The
Iranian
military has also reported the testing of laser-guided weaponry[6],
advanced torpedoes, ballistic missiles, anti-ship missiles, bullets that pierce
through bullet-proof vests, and electronic military hardware during the Blow of
Zolfaqar war games. Surface-to-surface and ocean-to-surface missiles
(submarine-to-surface missiles) in the Persian
Gulf were also tested in late August 2006. This includes missile that are
maintained to be invisible to radar and can use multiple warheads or carry
multiple payloads to hit numerous targets simultaneously.


Iran has also testing a “2,000 pound
guided-bomb with long-range capabilities.” This “2,000 pound bomb” is said to be
a “special weapon developed for penetrating military, economic and strategic
targets located deep underground or on the soil of the [impending]
enemy.”[7] In the case of a war this weapon
could prove lethal to Anglo-American military infrastructure in
Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Persian
Gulf. This guided bomb is a flying unmanned aircraft carrying an
explosive warhead. The Iranian Defence Minister has also said that
“Iran now joins the few countries that
possess guided missile technology,”[8] with the execution of the Blow of
Zolfaqar war games.
Iran has also
been manufacturing its own warplanes,[9]
submarines, attack helicopters, tanks, torpedoes, and missiles. This includes
remote-controlled modified Maverick Missiles.[10]
Brigadier-General Amini, the Deputy Commander of the Air Branch (Air Force) of
the Regular Forces, has highlighted that Iran has starting the development and
manufacturing of new types of warplanes besides the “Lighting fighter jets” that
have been showcased in Northern Iran.[11]
To discourage
the United States in its
plans to attack Iran, the
Iranian military has additionally showcasing its abilities to dog fight in the
air with its fighter jets.[12]
Iranian fighter and bomber jets have been progressively equipped with advanced
software and hardware being developed in Iran or by way of technology transfers from
China, the
Russian Federation, and the
republics of the former Soviet Union.
Iranian Commanders have also stated
that Iran can track and hit warplanes
without using conventional radar. Iran has also been showcasing its
signal jamming devices and electronic military hardware, which it compares to
NATO standards[13].

Warnings
to the United States To Stop Its War Plans
In Iran military commanders and state officials have
also directly warned the United
States to halt its march toward war in the Middle East. An account of a statement by
Major-General Salehi, commander of
the Iranian Army, sums up the generic view of Iranian military officials and
planners in the advent of another Middle Eastern war initiated by the United
States;
“Pointing to the joint manoeuvres to
be carried out by the U.S. army [meaning military] and some other countries in
the regional waters in the coming days, the General said that the U.S. presence
in the region [Middle East] is considered as a threat to the security of the
regional countries, and further warned Washington that in case the U.S. dares to
practice threats [by actually attacking], it will then have to face a defeat as
bad as the one that the Zionists [Israel] had to sustain in
Lebanon.”[14]
The
Iranian Defence Minister has said “that his ministry is now equipping
the border units of the army with modern military tools and weapons in a bid to
increase their military capabilities,”[15]
and “that any possible enemy invasion
of Iran will receive a severe blow, adding that failures of alien troops
[meaning U.S., British, Coalition, and NATO forces] in Iraq and Afghanistan have
taught trans-regional powers extreme caution.”[16]
Other
examples of public warnings by Iranian military commanders directed at the
United
States and its partners include;
Acting
Deputy Commander [Brigadier-General
Ahmadi] of the Iranian Mobilized Forces (Basij),
noting the intensification of the psychological operations and pressures against
Iran, stressed that his troops are
fully prepared to encounter “any stupid act by the enemies.”[17]
(September
9, 2006)
[Brigadier-General
Mohammad Hejazi] advised the
U.S. to relinquish the idea of invading Iran, stressing that as soon as the U.S.
dares to make such a big mistake, it will lose its forged reputation due to its
[the U.S. military’s] frequent and shocking defeats from the Iranian troops.[18] (September
10, 2006)
[Commander
of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Major-General
Safavi has warned that Revolutionary Guard] ground troops form a defensive force, but
meantime warned that in case any foreign threats are posed to Iran, [assured
that the] IRGC adopts an aggressive strategy and hits enemy targets in strategic
depth. He also described the southwestern province
of Khuzestan as the most strategic region of the country, saying, “Considering
that Khuzestan is a border province located at our sensitive borders with Iraq
where British and American occupying troops aim at devising cultural and
security plots for Khuzestani people through their intelligence organizations
and bodies, IRGC and Basij troops should maintain their preparedness at [the]
highest levels possible in order to confront and defuse any such measures by the
enemies.”[19]
(September
13, 2006: Also See British Troops Mobilizing on the Iranian Border)
During
the August war games Iranian military commanders claimed, in a gesture directed
towards the United States,
Britain, and
Israel, “that no air force of
any power stationed in the Middle East is
capable of confronting the Iranian military’s ground forces.”[20]
This might seem like a psychological
tactic to influence morale on both sides and deter any possible aerial assaults
against Iran. This statement can not be
easily overruled if a comprehensive analysis is made and studied. In this
regard, one must look at Lebanon, where Hezbollah and the
Lebanese Resistance were able to withstand Israeli aerial raids and overcome the
Israeli military on the ground. The Lebanese Resistance is reported as being
armed and trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. What would an Iranian
defensive of a larger magnitude, with state resources and air capabilities, be
like?

The anticipation of a conflict are
also coming from Iraq. Iraqi leaders have been
charging that the United
States and Britain plan on attacking Iran from Iraqi
territory. Government representatives of Anglo-American occupied
Iraq have asked that
Iraq not be turned into a
theatre of war between the United
States and Iran. “We do
not want Iraq to become an
arena where other states [i.e., the United
States, Britain, and Iran] settle their accounts,”[21]
said the Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih while visiting the Iranian
capital, Tehran.
This message looked as if it was mainly directed at the United States, as well as Iran.

Iran Always a
Military Objective for the United States
Washington: “Anyone
can go to Baghdad! Real Men go to Tehran!”
According
to Michel Chossudovsky (The Next Phase of the Middle East War, September, 2006),
the war o Iran is another phase of a “military roadmap,” which includes the
invasions of Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003), and the Anglo-American
sponsored Israeli siege of Lebanon (2006) as earlier stages.
In May, 2003 after the
Anglo-American invasion of Iraq in March 2003 the motto in the White House
and Washington D.C. was “Anyone can go to Baghdad! Real men go to Tehran!”
One should ask why “real” men would
continue towards Tehran after the invasion of
Iraq. This slogan demonstrates that
Iran was an objective or a phase in a
broader military operation. With that said, the United States would prefer some
form of internal “non-violent” regime change in Iran leading to American control
of the Iranian economy and oil resources rather than a high-risk and high-cost
military confrontation. The shape and nature of this conflict, however, is
uncertain.
Possibility
of conflict with Iran and a major aerial assault are
widely known.
The
United States has been
planning to attack Iran for years. Colonel
Sam Gardiner (Retired, U.S. Air Force) has stated that the campaign against
Iran is one where “the issue is not
whether the military option would be used, but who approved the start of
operations already.”

The
March to War with Iran and
Syria
With time fleeting, the Iranian
military is positioning itself in battle formations under the pretext of
nationwide war games and other pretexts. Iran has been
steadily strengthening its air defenses and air units in preparation for the
possibility of strikes. Iranian and Syrian coordination is also intensifying
with the passing of time.
An attack on Iran and Syria will be a combination of heavy
air bombardment by the U.S. Air Force, including the U.S. Army’s air units. It
will also include a ground offensive lead by the U.S. Marines and Army from the
American bases surrounding both Iran and Syria. The U.S. Navy and Coast Guard
will predominately manage the theatre of war in the Persian
Gulf, trying to guarantee the flow of oil through the strategic
Straits of Hormuz.
The Israeli
military would deal with military operations in the Levant. Both Israeli troops and Israeli public opinion are
being prepared for the possibility of another Middle Eastern conflict. In this
context, Israel would face
the possibility of aerial assaults from Iran.
Iran has threatened to retaliate if
it is attacked, using its ballistic missiles.
British and Australian forces in
southern Iraq would deploy
with the strategic aim of occupying the Iranian province of Khuzestan and securing its oil. Khuzestan
is where most of Iran’ oil fields are located. While a
naval build-up is materializing in the Persian Gulf which includes the U.S.
Coast Guard and the Canadian Navy.
The United States and its partners meanwhile are
continuing to marshal and siphon their forces into the Middle East and
Afghanistan. Both the
United States and
Britain have promised troop
reductions in Iraq, but are actually increasing
their troop levels. It also seems that a muzzle is being placed around
Lebanon to stop any attacks
on Israel by the presence of NATO
troops.

Syria also seems to be
expecting a possible aerial campaign. A vessel sailing to Syria under the flag of Panama, the “Grigorio I,” has been reported to
have been stopped off the coast of Cyprus transporting 18 truck-mounted
mobile radar systems and three command vehicles that seem to be elements of an
air defence system.[22]
In
Iran, the Intelligence
Minister has warned that “enemies are seeking to turn Iran insecure through adopting different
measures, including assassinations, explosions and extensive insecurities” and
that “his forces, in cooperation and
coordination with other governmental bodies, have defused enemies’ plots in
different Iranian provinces, including even Tehran.”[23]
Venezuela
has also threatened to halt oil exports in the event of any Anglo-American
aggression against Iran and
Syria. Venezuela has gone on to caution that it will
defend Iran “under
threat of invasion from the United States.” This
was a warning given to the United
States by Venezuela during the Conference of the
Non-Alignment Movement in Cuba.[24]
The
United States has already
started to target both Iran
and Syria’s financial bodies and
institutions in an act of economic warfare. Syria has in step
with Iran taken “preventative steps” in
early 2006 by switching from using the U.S. dollar to using the Euro for all its
transactions.
The chief of the
state-owned Syria Commercial Bank has said that such measures have
been taken to protect Syria from American sanctions
(economic warfare).[25]
Actions
have been taken against the large, state-owned Bank Saderat
of Iran by the United
States.[26]
The Bank Saderat has been cut off from the U.S. financial
system and its network(s). This is part of a deliberate objective to financially
cut off Iran from the rest of the world.
Three large Japanses banks, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ,
Mizuho Corporate Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation have followed in
step and will terminate business with Bank Saderat.[27]

[10] Enemy Targets Destroyed by Maverick Missiles,
Fars News Agency, September 6,
2006
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8506140347
Maverick missiles are American made or
developed air-to-surface missiles which are
conventionally used to attack
armoured units, warships, air defences, military transport and logistics units,
and military depots.
[13] Iran says ready to combat electronic warfare,
Iranmania, Sunday, March 05,
2006
[26] Lawder, David; US Treasury say Iran
pressure can be unilateral, Reuters, September 12, 2006
[27] Three big Japan banks decide not to deal with Iran's
Bank Saderat, Forbes, September 16, 2006
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/09/16/afx3021822.html
Related articles on the March to War with Iran
from the Centre for Research on Globalization:
The Next Phase of
the Middle East War
2006-09-04
Baluchistan and
the Coming Iran War
2006-09-01
British Troops
Mobilizing on the Iranian Border
2006-08-30
Russia and Central Asian Allies Conduct War Games in
Response to US Threats 2006-08-24
Beating the Drums
of War: US Troop Build-up: Army & Marines authorize "Involuntary
Conscription" 2006-08-23
Iranian War
Games: Exercises, Tests, and Drills or Preparation and Mobilization for
War? 2006-08-21
Triple Alliance": The US, Turkey, Israel and the
War on Lebanon
2006-08-06
The War on Lebanon and the Battle for
Oil 2006-07-26
Is the Bush Administration Planning a Nuclear
Holocaust?
2006-02-22
The Dangers of a Middle East Nuclear
War 2006-02-17
Nuclear War against Iran 2006-01-03
Israeli Bombings could lead to Escalation of
Middle East War 2006-07-15
Iran: Next Target of US Military
Aggression
2005-05-01
Planned US-Israeli Attack on Iran 2005-05-01
See also:
I. Rogers, Paul; Iran: Consequences of a War, Oxford Research Group;
February, 2006
http://www.iranbodycount.org/
http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefings/IranConsequences.htm
© Copyright Mahdi Darius
Nazemroaya, GlobalResearch.ca,
2006
Disclaimer: The views
expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not
necessarily reflect those of the Centre for Research on
Globalization.