By Adam Javid, Campaign Iran (CASMII)

To a casual observer of recent turbulent events in the Middle East nothing makes sense.

• Political assassinations in Lebanon followed by invasion and
  destruction of the country
• total blockade of Palestinians, destruction of their infrastructure
• then shipment of arms and cash to their president by the same people raiding and detaining of Iranian Consulate and its staff by US troops
  in Iraq
• presence of US aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, British mine
  sweepers in the Persian Gulf
• brandishing of sticks and carrots at Syria

would leave anyone wonder what is going on. 

But to the US strategists, using neocons' "The new American century" as their bible, these events are all coherent calculated moves culminating in checkmating Iran.  In chess one must anticipate the opponent's moves and block or neutralise them. 

For some time the Americans have been asking themselves how would Iran react in the event of being attacked? They have no plans for a land invasion of Iran and are safe in the knowledge that Iran has no functioning airforce or navy to speak of. 

They have considered the possibility of shipping disruption in the Persian Gulf, hence their heavy naval presence in the area. 

The risk of staging proxy wars by Iran, however, has been taken very
seriously by these strategists.  They suspect Iran could use her friends in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq to inflict serious harm on the US and her collaborators. 

Now if one looks back of the events of last year everything becomes
clearer.  Convenient assassinations in Lebanon cut Syrian hands off this country. The capture of two Israeli soldiers by the Lebanese resistance ends in creation of a buffer zone between Lebanon and Israel and destruction of Lebanese infrastructure. 

 Election of an Iran-friendly government by the Palestinians leads to their total blockade and starvation by the US and her allies.  Living in a large prison, the Palestinians have turned on each other and now their president is being armed and financed by the US and her friends to fight his own pro-Iran prime minister. 

In Syria's case, mysterious assassinations of prominent Lebanese
politicians led to Syria's reach in Lebanon being curtailed.  A
combination of carrots and sticks is pacifying Syria. 
So far Iran's potential moves in the event of being attacked have been well anticipated and nullified.  The last possible move by Iran would have been reliance on her Iraqi friends.  Surely enough the US has expected this potential last move.  Shortly we should be witnessing a US move on Shia militants in Sadr City and other areas. 

The British are retreating to their barracks out of harm's way in the event of any Shia backlash in  response to an attack on Iran. 

The raid on Iran's consulate in Erbil, arrest of Iran's diplomats in the residence of a major Iraqi cleric are all part of disabling Iran's communication network with her friends in Iraq.

So far a very smart game.  A massive, sustained aerial bombardment of Iran by US and/or Israel would definitely mean checkmate and end of game.

Of course it's not a game.  Hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians would loose their lives. 

Are we going to be silent witnesses to this looming human tragedy?  Could we live with a guilty conscience having observed what price Iraqi
civilians paid for "The new American century"? 

By sustained and vigorous engagement with the media we can help the
British and American public understand the facts about Iran and stop their respective governments from starting another war.