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5/23/07

Oil expected to fluctuate around dlrs 70 for next 12 months

London, May 22, IRNA - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate around 70 dollars per barrel for the next 12 months, according to the latest monthly report by the Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES).

The London-based centre predicted that the price of Dated Brent crude would rise from an average of 67.4 dpb during the current quarter to 72.4 dpb in the next.

After dropping back down to an average of 69.8 dpb in the final three months of 2007, it expected that the average rate would again rise in the first quarter of 2008 to 72 dpb.

"The world needs more oil than OPEC seems willing to supply, making it difficult to avoid another surge in oil prices over the coming summer," the report said.

"Far from being 'in balance' as OPEC suggests, the oil market is experiencing a period of high price volatility that will persist as long as producers continue to seek prices above 60 dpb," it warned.

The latest forecast put Dated Brent at an average of 66.8 dpb for this year, up from 65 dpb last month and from 54.3 dpb it predicted in January.

In its base case scenario, it said it was assuming that OPEC's oil production would rise slowly over the two summer quarters, with most members producing around their current levels and from modest growth from Angola, which remains outside the organisation's quota.

A higher price scenario predicted that crude rates could reach an average of 76 dpb during the third quarter of the year, 73.9 dpb in the final three months and 75.2 in the first quarter of 2008.

... Payvand News - 5/23/07 ...

... Payvand News - 5/23/07 ... --



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