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Professor Saeedi: A catastrophic loss of 3.9 trillion Dollars in Iran's oil reservoirs

Professor Ali Mohammd Saeedi

ISNA, Tehran - Recent calculations and studies by professor Saeedi, expert in oil and gas reservoirs, Dr. Derakhshan, energy economist and several other engineers, on Iran's reservoirs proves that injecting gas to increase oil extraction is the most economic alternative of gas consumption.

The Strategic Issues reporter of ISNA said these calculations is based on mathematical models run in three different scenarios to estimate the necessary amount of  gas needed to extract oil.


Professor Saeedi said: If gas is injected into our oil reservoirs, the volume of Iran's fossil energy resources would become more than Saudi Arabia in the long run and Iran can gain the first place in the world.


He warned: Non-injection of gas would diminish Iran's oil production by two million barrels per day and we would be forced to import oil.


Based on his recent calculations on Iran's oil reservoirs, Saeedi said: The amount of gas dedicated to exportation can prevent the destruction of 65 billion barrels of oil; this reservoir will be buried because of non-injection of gas and the decrease in pressure.


To understand the full implications of this assessment it should be noted that assuming an exportation of four million barrels a day, the reservoir of 65 billion barrels would be the amount of oil exported in 44 years with a value of 3.9 trillion Dollars (based on 60 Dollars per barrel).


It should noted that Professor Saeedi's studies in 1355 [1976] which has been published recently by Majlis Research Centre, shows that Iran's oil reservoirs needed an injection of 250 million cubic meters of gas in that period. This programme was approved by the Iranian oil company and all the necessary equipments were ordered and bought. Today, after a quarter of a century, only 100 million cubic meters of gas is injected to these reservoirs. According to estimations by Professor Saeedi the volume needed today is in the range of 560 million cubic meters.


Several oil officials have recently claimed that the rate of oil retrieval in oil reservoirs has increased to 27 percent. Professor Saeedi denies this claim and said: The rate of retrieval is 21 percent in our oil fields. The oil ministry should explain how, without having injected gas in oil fields, it has increased the retrieval rates.


Professor Saeedi had published his important research and studies, entitled Oil and National Interests, regarding the necessity to inject gas in oil field to increase production of oil in 1381 [2002] (before the rise in oil prices) in Majlis Research Centre newsletter. In his report the attention is drawn to the fact that to maintain the production of 4 million barrels a day (with a real production of 3.5 million barrels) the Oil Company needs six thousand new oil wells within the next 20 years. This would require an investment of 33 billion Dollars. If gas is injected into the oil fields daily by 20 billion cubic pye, this number will be reduced by half and reach 3000 oil wells. The economy in this case is equal to the cost of production, transfer and injection of 20 billion cubic pye.


He anticipated: In the year 2015 due to the inability of many oil exporting countries to export oil the prices would rise considerably and we can benefit from this situation if we invest sufficiently in marinating our oil fields.


Note: Original article published in Persian by ISNA.
Translated for by BMarz translators:

... Payvand News - 10/22/07 ... --

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