EWG, a German-based independent think-tank,
released its new study in London. Its warning, based more upon production data,
contrasts to International Energy Agency projections by the, which suggest there
is little reason to worry about oil supplies.
"The most alarming finding is the steep decline of
the oil supply after peak," said the report's Jorg Schindler, a scientist and a
managing director of Ludwig-Bolkow-Systemtechnik.
"Since crude oil is the most important energy
carrier at a global scale and since all kinds of transport rely heavily on oil,
the future oil availability is of paramount importance," Schindler said.
German MP, Hans-Josef Fell, who founded EWG, warned
there was a "huge problem" for the world economy. "The world soon will not be
able to produce all the oil it needs as demand is rising while supply is
falling," he said.
The report said that official industry estimates
put global oil reserves at about 1.255 gigabarrels, equivalent to 42 years'
supply at current consumption rates, but believed the figure is only about two
thirds of that.
Global oil production, which is currently around 81
million barrel per day, was expected to fall to just 39 m by 2030. Significant
falls were also predicted in gas, coal and uranium production as energy sources
are used up.
Fell warned that the world had to move quickly
towards the massive deployment of renewable energy and to a dramatic increase in
energy efficiency. "If we did all this we may not have an energy crisis," he