Berdymukhammedov was in Kabul on April 28, making
the case for the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline (TAPI), while
Ahmadinejad was in Islamabad on the same day, discussing details of the
Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline (IPI).
Both pipelines have several pros and cons, and
the consumer countries -- Pakistan and India -- have signaled they want both
TAPI and IPI to help sate their energy needs.
Berdymukhammedov spoke about TAPI with Afghan
President Hamid Karzai on the first-ever visit by a Turkmen president to Kabul
in independent Turkmenistan's 17-year history. The two countries signed deals on
energy, transport, and culture. The meeting came just days after representatives
from their countries, along with Pakistan and India, signed an agreement to
start construction of the pipeline in 2010, with operations slated to begin in
2015.
"We had a discussion with the Turkmen president
on a series of issues that involve our two countries," Karzai said. "The main
areas of our talks were on the exchange of energy between the two countries,
developing transportation, communications, and on the gas pipeline that will
export natural gas from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. We
discussed a railway between our two countries -- and how to extend the railroad
through Afghanistan to neighboring countries. Also, we spoke about the
importation of electricity from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan. And we had a
discussion on terrorism threats and regional problems."
'New Era' In Relations
The Turkmen president hailed the event as
signaling a "new era" in relations between the two states.
"Today, our historic friendship has endured much,
but we are entering a completely new era that brings broad possibilities for
developing the mutual and useful relationship between our countries,"
Berdymukhammedov said.
According to plans, the 1,680-kilometer TAPI
pipeline would start in the Turkmen city of Dauletabad and pass through the
Afghan cities of Herat and Kandahar before entering Pakistan at Quetta and
proceeding to the Indian border town of Fazilka. Six compressor stations will be
built along the route. Plans for the pipeline call for it to export some 33
billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas from the field annually. Estimates of the cost
for building the TAPI pipeline range from $6 billion to $7.5 billion.
Analysts point to two major drawbacks with TAPI.
The first is the route through Afghanistan, where it will be difficult to ensure
security for the pipeline, especially as it turns eastwards and approaches
Kandahar, where fighting between militants and the Afghan government and foreign
forces is still a daily occurrence. Turkmenistan and Pakistan have been trying
for more than a decade to get the pipeline built, but security problems in
Afghanistan have always held up the deal. If security could be guaranteed,
Afghanistan stands to receive large and badly needed revenues from transit fees.
The second problem is the question of how much
natural gas Turkmenistan actually has. The April 28 edition of the Russian daily
"Kommersant" points out that Turkmenistan has a contract with Russia's Gazprom
to export up to 50 bcm of gas annually to Russia for two more decades, a
contract with China that starts in 2009 for 30 bcm annually, and a deal with
Iran for 8 bcm annually. Berdymukhammedov also promised earlier this month to
send 10 bcm to Europe Union countries, though the details of that agreement are
still unclear. The acceptance of the TAPI deal would bring annual Turkmen
natural-gas exports to well over 100 bcm annually -- a huge amount of natural
gas to export when Turkmenistan's proven reserves of gas are not fully known.
No Iranian Participation
But TAPI enjoys two advantages that the IPI does
not -- support from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and no Iranian
participation. The ADB's support gives the project a greater international
profile and, since Iran is not involved, TAPI may also find other investors --
including U.S. companies that are forbidden by U.S. law to deal with Iran, and
European investors who fear U.S. sanctions if they commit to IPI instead of
TAPI.
Ahmadinejad's visit to Pakistan was similar in
nature to Berdymukhammedov's in Afghanistan. Pakistani and Indian officials also
met about IPI last week in Islamabad when Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas
Minister Murli Deora was there for talks. Iran, under intense pressure from many
countries over its controversial nuclear program, would benefit greatly from
signing such a major deal, which would also bring in much-needed revenue.
Reports from Islamabad on April 25 indicated that
India and Pakistan were close to finalizing their part of the deal. Ahmadinejad
is trying to push the potential partners to sign that deal. For its part, Iran
has already started constructing the pipeline on its territory and could have
its section to the Pakistani border completed by 2012.
The IPI pipeline would be some 2,600 kilometers
long and would cost an estimated $7 billion. The IPI pipeline would initially
carry some 30 bcm annually, but within three to four years after starting up
that amount would increase to 70 bcm. Iran first proposed the pipeline in the
1990s, but tensions between Pakistan and India kept the project on hold until
now. In their meetings last week, Pakistani and Indian officials stressed that
cooperation between the two nuclear neighbors is better now.
Washington's Wrath
IPI's disadvantage is the U.S. objection to the
pipeline -- but both Pakistan and India have indicated publicly that their
countries' demand for energy is such that Islamabad and New Delhi are prepared
to endure the possibility of complicating ties with Washington. The ABD has not
come out in favor of IPI, and many potential international investors may be
frightened of facing Washington's wrath for being part of IPI.
A distinct advantage for IPI is that there are
two major companies that have expressed interest in joining the project --
Russia's Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation. Gazprom has
supported the IPI project for several years but China's interest is relatively
new and may have to do with a proposal from Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf
earlier this month that his country could build a "Karakorum" pipeline to
deliver gas or oil to China through mountain passes in the Himalayas. Such
pipelines could bring not only Iranian natural gas but also gas and oil
delivered to Pakistani port cities along the Arabian Sea.
Another meeting on TAPI -- at which the major
parties will attempt to agree on transit prices -- is scheduled for May.
Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad travels to Afghanistan on April 29.
The Kabul Bureau of RFE/RL's Radio Free
Afghanistan and RFE/RL Turkmen Service correspondent Guvanch Geraev contributed
to this report