They
see the contest, involving 4,500 candidates for 290 seats in the Majlis, as
little more than democratic window-dressing. They point to the thousands of
reformist candidates, deemed unfit to represent the Islamic revolution, who have
been barred from running. And they note the state-run media's bias toward the
ruling conservatives and "Principalist" faction of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.
"These polls are taking place only among the
Osoolgrayan (Principalists) and their insiders," says Nasim, a female listener
who texted a message from Mashhad. "There is no opportunity for others."
But the others are trying, even if many voters
claim not to see much of a difference between the three reformist parties that
make up the opposition camp and the two factions that comprise the conservative
coalition.
Former President Mohammad Khatami, a leading
reformist, has urged a massive turnout by voters for the opposition to reverse
their 2004 electoral defeat and retake control of parliament. "We must safeguard
fundamental freedoms," Khatami said. "That's what reformism is all about."
It's also about risking disqualification from the
race.
More than 7,000 candidates were initially
registered to run in the election, but some 3,000 were disqualified during the
screening process -- the huge majority of them reformists. As in the last
parliamentary polls in 2004, the Guardians Council -- the 12-member body that
answers to Iran's supreme leader -- later reinstated nearly 1,000 barred
candidates. Yet many of the top reformists were still kept out.
The mass disqualification of their candidates
means the reformists will compete for only about half the seats in parliament.
The Majlis, already dominated by conservatives, looks set to stay that way.
Which explains the feelings of Iranians like Hamid, who wrote in a text message
from Esfahan: "What freedom? What justice? What election? In this Islamic
Republic? To talk about justice here is laughable!"
Judging Ahmadinejad
But as reformists bemoan their fate,
conservatives look to the future. Indeed, if anything, the polls can be seen as
a referendum on Ahmadinejad, whose hard-line foreign policy and rhetoric have
helped isolate Iran and bring about three sets of United Nations sanctions over
Tehran's failure to cooperate on its nuclear program. The sanctions, among other
things, have made it harder for Iranians and their banks to do business, a
development that has led some conservatives to break ranks with the president.
Above all, the right-wing dissenters take issue
with the style, if not substance, of Ahmadinejad's foreign policy. Dubbed the
Broad Principalist Coalition, they are led by Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer
Qalibaf, former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps chief Mohsen Rezaie, and
former top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani. All three men are reported to be
considering running in next year's presidential elections.
Meanwhile, the president's United Principalist
Front, though under fire from fellow conservatives, is hoping to consolidate its
hold on power. Analysts like its chances. Yet apart from the right-wing critics'
views of Ahmadinejad and his confrontational approach abroad, it is difficult to
detect major differences between the conservative blocs.
There are also two reformist coalitions competing
for votes, albeit far smaller than the conservative factions, due to the
disqualifications. Some 30 parties make up the Khatami-inspired Reformist
Coalition. Khatami has been critical of his successor's economic policies. As
president from 1997 to 2005, he was also known for promoting political openness,
press freedom, and reducing tensions with the United States.
The other grouping, the National Confidence
Party, is led by the reformist former speaker of parliament, Mehdi Karroubi.
Karroubi is seen by many Iranian observers as a possible candidate in the 2009
presidential elections.
Analysts say the reformists mostly depend on
votes from the middle class, youth, and educated Iranians. Conservatives, and
particularly Ahmadinejad supporters, depend more on voters from outside Tehran
and poorer rural areas. "The reformists focus on criticizing Mr. Ahmadinejad's
government, including foreign policy, economic hardships, and restrictions on
student political movements and women," says Ali Reza Haghighi, a professor at
the University of Toronto.

No Talk Of The Issues
Yet there has been little public policy debate,
even as ordinary Iranians grapple with joblessness and runaway inflation. "There
are no visible disagreements between the candidates' positions and slogans,"
Saeed Rajayi Khorasani, a former parliamentarian, tells Radio Farda. "Most
candidates are principalists. But the reformists have not presented a platform
that is tangibly different from the conservatives'."
Which explains partly why the polls appear to
have failed to attract the attention of many Iranians, especially young people.
Iranian state-run television this week reported predictions that voter turnout
would be near 60 percent. Yet most messages received by Radio Farda suggest
apathy will win the day.
"Once more, with this election, the regime is
fooling people," Ali, from the city of Jooybar in northern Mazandaran Province,
says in an email. He is partly echoed by a Tehran bazaar trader interviewed by
Reuters: "The candidates must promise something they can actually deliver on,"
Masoud Amiri was quoted as saying. "They really must work and try to solve young
people's problems in housing and unemployment. Slogans are not enough -- they
must act."
Similar sentiments, to be sure, are heard among
voters in Western democracies. And analysts say that despite their shortcomings,
Iran's parliamentary elections are better than anything the region's other
authoritarian regimes offer.
Conservatives clearly also have their supporters,
who sent in messages to Radio Farda as well. Like a man called "K." Writing from
the port of Bandar Abbas, he says the elections will finally "strike a blow" to
U.S. President George W. Bush. Others say they will vote out of patriotism. "I
am Iranian and will vote for Iran," one listener says. "Unity is the most
important thing -- the principalists and reformists are no different."
Yet for others, that's the problem.
And even as differences between right and left
may not be huge, the disqualification of reformists means many Iranians see
their choice as between two conservative blocs -- one supportive of the
president, the other a little less so.
"Please tell me, what sort of enthusiasm could
send us to the voting booths?" asks Mr. Abdibeig, a listener from Orumieh. "What
kind of hope?"
RFE/RL correspondent Iraj Gorgin and Radio
Farda's Javad Koorushy contributed to this report