Mottaki added that Iran wants to move from being
an observing member in the regional grouping to being a full member.
Iran, Afghanistan, India, Mongolia, and Pakistan
currently have observer status in the SCO. The group -- established in 1996 as
the Shanghai Five before changing its name in 2001 -- includes China, Russia,
and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
On March 27, SCO Secretary-General Bolat
Nurgaliev, of Kazakhstan, welcomed Iran's membership bid and said it will not
bring any "negative moments in relations with the regional and international
organizations."
'Smart Move' For Iran
Vladimir Sazhin, a regional expert at the
Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow, says that seeking full SCO membership
is a "smart move" for Iran, which he says would find "political and economic
survival" by joining the regional organization.
Sazhin said Iran, which has a dismal relationship
with the West because of Tehran's controversial nuclear program, finds itself
increasingly isolated in the international arena. "By entering the SCO as a full
member," he said, "Iran first of all would get official and legitimate partners,
including two important players, Russia and China."
SCO membership would also give Iran some degree
of protection against threats from the United States. "Secondly, Iran wants --
under the SCO wings and as a full member of the group -- to get a guarantee
against possible U.S. and Israeli [military] action against Iran," Sazhin said.
"Here, I mean a guarantee against a possible, hypothetical military resolution
for Iran's nuclear crisis."
But most experts say it is unlikely Iran will
becoming a SCO member anytime in the near future. Although leading SCO members
Russia and China have long given some support at the UN to Iran against U.S. and
EU pressure against Tehran's nuclear program, experts say Moscow and Beijing
would not jeopardize putting the SCO into an open confrontation with Washington
and Brussels.
Concern About Group's Direction
In an interview with Radio Farda, Turaj Atabaki,
a professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian history at Leiden University in
the Netherlands, said that Russia and China would not complicate SCO affairs and
the group's status by accepting Iran as a member.
"China and Russia -- the two main SCO members --
will try to prevent the SCO from becoming an active anti-Western and
anti-American organization," Atabaki said. "Therefore, the two countries are
concerned that Iran's presence [in the group] would possibly take it in a
different direction [that could] result in regional conflicts and confrontations
between the East and the West."
"[China and Russia] are concerned that
Iran's presence would possibly take [the SCO] in a different direction
[that could] result in regional conflicts and confrontations between the
East and the West." -- Turaj Atabaki, Leiden University
Sazhin, of the the Institute of Oriental Studies
in Moscow, agrees. He says Mottaki's statement in Dushanbe about Tehran joining
the SCO was nothing more than wishful thinking on Iran's part. "I believe Tehran
has not yet consulted with Russia or China about making such an announcement in
Dushanbe," said Sazhin, "because obviously Moscow and Beijing have a lot
reservations about [Tehran becoming a member]."
According to Sazhin, both Moscow and Beijing
realize that Iran -- as a full member of the SCO -- would try to create "a
split, if not outright animosity" between the Western permanent members of the
UN Security Council on one side and Russia and China on the other.
Experts say Russia and China would find
themselves in an uncomfortable position if Iran put forward its candidacy for
membership at the next SCO summit in Dushanbe later this year. The organization
would also be obliged to give an official response to Tehran's request.
The SCO currently has a moratorium on expanding
its membership. The group has only accepted one new member -- Uzbekistan -- in
2001.
Furthermore, if Iran's apparently unlikely wish
of SCO membership would be granted, it could be followed by a membership request
from Pakistan, which has also expressed its willingness to join the SCO and
enjoys China's support.
But including Pakistan without also accepting
India as a member would be problematic for the organization. The SCO has in the
past encouraged India to become a member of the organization but New Delhi has
not formally expressed such an interest. It is yet another reason why Iran is
unlikely to gain membership soon.
Counterbalance To NATO?
The SCO members and observers -- which comprise
25 percent of the Earth's territory -- together form the worlds' largest
producer of energy and a very formidable bloc of economic and military power.
The SCO leaders have stated that the organization has no plan to become a
military bloc and that the alliance is not directed against any other state or
region.
Nevertheless, many observers believe the group
was created chiefly as a counterbalance to NATO and the United States,
particularly to prevent Washington from intervening in areas near Russia and
China.
At the Astana summit in 2005, the group urged the
United States to set a timetable for withdrawing its troops from SCO member
states. Shortly after the meeting, the Uzbek government asked U.S. forces to
leave the Khanabad Air Base in Uzbekistan.
Allowing Tehran to use Russia and China to exert
similar power on the United States is not something the SCO's controlling
members are likely to approve in the near future.