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By Mohammad Reza Kazemi,
RFE/RL When the
new U.S. president takes office in January, one of the key issues he'll find on
his desk is the problem of Iran. One of the largest and most powerful countries
in the Middle East and a leading energy producer, Iran has also presented a
defiant challenge to Washington, particularly in its insistence on pursuing an
advanced nuclear program.
Although the current U.S. administration has refused to remove the "military
option" from the table, it seems clear that a war is in no one's interests --
not the U.S. taxpayers', not the overtaxed U.S. military's, not those of Iran's
neighbors, including Iraq and Afghanistan.
There are some Iranians inside the country and abroad who are sick of the
theocracy in Tehran and dream that if the United States attacks today, the
country will be a democracy tomorrow. But the experiences of Iraq and
Afghanistan reveal a different truth altogether. Democracy takes time. Military
action will not resolve Iran's domestic issues.
And many experts argue that it will not resolve the standoff over the nuclear
program either. Although a strike would set the program back, it would not end
it. It would spread radioactive contamination and produce civilian casualties,
but achieve little else. Tehran would certainly respond by leaving the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty and ending all cooperation with the International Atomic
Energy Agency. It would build new facilities without any international oversight
or control.
Equally importantly, it would enflame anti-Western and anti-American sentiment
across the country and rally many in Iran to support the government. After all,
a significant portion of the Iranian people already support the nuclear program.
Further, an attack would undermine the efforts of moderate and liberal
politicians in Iran to push an agenda of international engagement and democratic
reform.
Speak To Iran, All Of It
But this does not mean there is not a way forward. My advice to the new
president is as follows:
First, end the saber-rattling and initiate direct talks with the Iranian
authorities. In addition to formal talks, identify and seek contacts with people
within the country who do not hold posts in the government, but nonetheless
wield great authority. Use all means to reach them and persuade them of your
willingness to hammer out a mutually acceptable compromise.
Second, you should realize that the majority of Iranian people bear no ill-will
toward the United States, the West, or even Israel. An Iranian government that
truly reflected the views of the majority of the population would seek to
improve relations. A careful and nuanced approach to democracy promotion is
needed in Iran, one that does not expect the immediate result of "regime change"
but the long-term result of open civil society and healthy grassroots
institutions. The path to achieving this is not simple, and direct financial
support to activists is not always the best way to advance their efforts. In
fact, under the current system, such aid can bring them no end of grief. In
addition, you must avoid the pitfall of supporting groups that pretend to
espouse liberal values but in fact are bent on establishing their own
dictatorship in Iran.
Third, use economic and political sanctions and incentives to promote and
encourage democratic change. Europe will support such efforts, and Tehran might
well respond to offers of real engagement. Any other course would inevitably
mean the United States would continue to stand alone and stymied.
Finally, I would stress the importance of boosting access to information and
informed debate in Iran. The dictatorship there thrives because of its
stranglehold on information and its ability to control and shape impressions and
opinions. International broadcasting is one tool for expanding the terms of
debate within Iran and arming moderates with the facts they need to change the
system.
Mr. President, Iran is more open to you than you might think. And your ability
to improve the situation in the region and the situation within Iran itself is
greater than you might think.
Mohammad Reza Kazemi is a broadcaster with RFE/RL's Persian-language Radio
Farda. The views expressed in this commentary are the author's own and do not
necessarily reflect those of RFE/RL
Copyright (c) 2008 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036. www.rferl.org
© Copyright 2008 NetNative
(All Rights Reserved)
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