By: Ahmadreza Tavassoli, Kourosh
Ziabari
Professor
Dara Entekhabi is a word-renowned
Iranian scholar of climatology and The Director of Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory
for Environmental Science and Engineering who currently serves as the Professor
of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary
Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
So far, he has won several
international awards for his academic breakthroughs and discoveries in the field
of climatology and environmental engineering from which the National Science
Foundation (NSF), Presidential Young Investigator in 1991, Istituto Veneto di
Scienze, Lettere ed Arti, Cav. Arturo Parisatti Prize in 1994 and American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Macelwane Young Scientist Medal could be mentioned.
Given the incremental
geographical and environmental disasters worldwide and the growing concerns over
the calamitous phenomenon of climate change, we interviewed Prof. Entekhaabi to
elaborate on his ideas, predictions and solutions for the current disease and
also a variety of other topics related to the prospect of science in his
home-country, Iran, the non-alignment of US to Kyoto Protocol etc.
Q:
Dear Prof. Entekhabi, with a lot of thanks for your immense help and kindness,
let's start with a general question, which the Iranian readers would be
enthusiastic to know about. Does your nationality have any impact on your
effectiveness in the workplace? Does anybody care about this at all? What about
yourself? Do you try to obscure your nationality in order to keep a low profile
or propagate it publicly?
A:
Thank you for the opportunity to share some personal experiences and impressions
with your readers. As you indicate I have been working in the United States for
the last twenty years as an Iranian national. I think it is very important to
make colleagues and co-workers recognize Iran national origin. Iranian science
community should of course have a strong base within Iran but it also needs to
be represented on the international scene. We now live in a globalized
community where many nationalities are evident in leadership positions of major
ventures and projects. The intellectual capital and resourcefulness of Iranian
people should be evident on this international scene. So in response to your
question, I recognize that my Iranian nationality should go hand-in-hand with
what I do especially on international projects.
Q:
Dear Professor, nowadays we hear a stack of shocking news from different
countries regarding the gradual extinction of various species of plants, animals
and other natural resources due to some complicated reasons. How much culprit is
the humankind about such a disastrous situation? Is there any practical way of
shunning this irretrievable catastrophe?
A:
There is an alarming increase in
the extinction of species and loss of biodiversity. Some of it is due to loss
of habitat (land use change). Some of it is due to accumulation of chemicals
introduced by humans. These chemicals accumulate as they go up the food chain.
Some of it is due to un-sustainable resource allocation for human use and
consumption. Extinction of species is tragic in itself because it represents a
permanent loss. But there is dimension of this problem that affects human
welfare and health. Loss of biodiversity reduces the resilience of ecosystems
and makes them more susceptible to collapse and invasive species. Biodiversity
is a important aspect of maintain ecosystem health. Agricultural ecosystems,
lands used for food production and water supply, and all managed ecosystems do
need biodiversity across species (from microbes to plants to animals). The
chemical cycling in ecosystems is linked to biodiversity.
Q:
One of your research areas is the dynamics of winter-time extra-tropical
atmosphere and its predictability. Would you please elucidate this subject a bit
more, and tell us if possible, that whether there is something distinctive with
the "winter" that makes it an exclusive field of study?
A:
Tropical climate prediction has
advanced during the last two decades. It is based on increased observations and
modeling capability. Tropical oceans and the atmosphere are very closely linked
which makes them predictable. Outside of tropics (higher latitudes) and
especially in winter the atmosphere is a lot more turbulent. It has limits to
prediction. Understanding and predicting mid-latitude (extra-tropical) climate
is a challenge. Several months ahead prediction in these latitudes and in winter
season has practical value. Energy demand is related to it. During the last
five years I have been working on the physical mechanisms that determine winter
time climate regime. Snow turns out to be a big factor because the solar
reflectivity of snow and bare ground are very different. When there is an early
snow cover anomaly, the difference in surface heating is large. This affects the
atmospheric turbulence that reaches into the stratosphere. We are making
predictions of winter climate that energy companies use for planning.
Q:
Dear professor, another question is going to be about the Kyoto Protocol which
is the most substantial treaty to define some flexible mechanisms for the
stoppage of intolerable climate change. USA is the only country that although a
signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, has neither ratified nor withdrawn from. The
signature alone is symbolic, as the Kyoto Protocol is non-binding on the United
States unless ratified. In the other hand, USA is the largest emitter of CO2 and
greenhouse gases itself which is truly perilous for the future. What is your
estimation about the energy policies of the US government and its non-alignment
to Kyoto Protocol?
A:
The US government policy on
greenhouse gas emissions has been a disaster during the last eight years. At
first the government policy was denial of link between greenhouse gas emissions
and global warming. Faced with overwhelming scientific evidence the government
finally acknowledged the problem. Over the last the US has lost valuable time in
investing in clean energy technologies and increasing energy use efficiency.
Fossil fuel companies especially oil companies have had a lot of influence on US
fuel policy during last eight years. The new administration has very different
policies on the topic.
Q:
Industrialization is a ceaseless and progressive current which is neither
logical nor feasible to be slowed down. But this progress has its own negative
effects on our climate especially in the term of garbage production. Today, many
of countries are suffering from the disadvantages of industrialization and thus
losing their jungles, forests and natural resources gradually which is a
terrible nightmare for the environment. Where is our responsibility here?
A:
Industrialization and
urbanization should not be equated with environmental damage. In fact there is
good opportunity to make more efficient uses of resources and reduce waste. The
key is that any new manufacturing process or urban development should take into
account the full life-cycle of material flows. The environmental impacts of raw
material extraction and transport, of manufacturing, of product distribution, of
consumption and of waste disposal should all be considered at once. This is
called cradle-to-grave analysis. Where there is recycling it is often called
cradle-to-cradle. If done right there is no need to consider industrialization
and the environment as conflicting.
Q:
A problematic challenge for the environment today is the uncontrolled pollution
of seas, water bodies and oceans. With the increasing amount of financial deals
between the countries who are the demanders and suppliers of oil and
petrochemical productions, we are facing the abundant pollution of waters with
oil and its derivations. The disgraced incident leads to both the pollution of
international water bodies and the extinction of underwater species. The
difficulty goes more disastrous when an, for example, oil tanker drowns into the
ocean or gulf, and all of its containers release into the water. Do you think
there is any solution for this complexity?
A:
That is one of the aspects of
the environment. The environment does not stop at international borders. To
manage the environment we often have to reach across shared borders. Sometimes
it is regional like in the Caspian Sea or Persian Gulf. Sometimes it is global
like greenhouse gas emissions.
Q: Some of the climate
and environment specialists propound the theory that the underdeveloped and
non-developed countries have the least share in the climate change and global
warming because of their slight role in the huge industrial projects and giant
factories. Can
We accept such a notion, and if
so, then should we keep them underdeveloped perpetually in order to avoid the
expansion of pollution and recompensing the shortcomings of industrialized
countries on the other hand?
A:
I do not agree with notion that
human welfare in some countries should be kept at low level so they do not
become industrialized and big consumers of energy. The opposite, we should aim
for increase human welfare in the context of environmental health. Developing
countries can learn from the lessons of western industrial age and
industrialization to take a better path towards economic development. The
industrialized countries have made a lot of mistakes along their development
especially regarding the environment. We can learn those lessons and not repeat
them. We do not have to follow the same path towards the end. Take the example
of telephones. Industrial countries installed copper wire networks, then
installed fiber optics, then cellular networks. One would not expect a
undeveloped country to build its first telephone network using low-bandwidth
copper wire. The lesson is learned and a cellular network is installed.
Q:
At the time being, which modern methods of weather prediction are mainly
prevalent in the developed countries, as you are in US, and how much it is
proved that they are accurate in the results? Would you please elaborate a
little about the latest improvements and discoveries in the field of weather
prediction and the degree of accuracy which they provide?
A:
Weather prediction is done
through models of the atmospheric fluid flow including energy and water
processes. At the same time the atmosphere is a chaotic fluid. This means that a
small difference in the initial condition of two parallel predictions will take
different trajectories over time. So beside powerful models the key issue is
how good the numerical weather model is initialized compared to the parallel
truth. Errors in the initial conditions lead to lesser quality forecasts. During
the last decade or so there is great increase in the amount of satellite data
available for weather model initialization. There is also great cooperation
among countries in sharing data. Weather prediction is a global problem and
cooperation among countries in this regard is recognized to be to the benefit of
everyone.
Q:
What are the most concerning
challenges, for you and your colleagues, in the term of global climate
transformation, water surface changes and land-atmosphere interaction, right
now?
A:
Global warming is certainly
among the top problems. The greenhouse gases that are added to the atmosphere
because of human fossil fuel consumption do not get absorbed for hundreds of
years. Our denial about the problem over the last decades when we learned
scientifically about the consequences means that we are already late. We need
to catch up. We know well how greenhouse gases affect global temperatures. That
is very clear and known for over 150 years. What we do not know is the effect
on the water cycle, water resources, and biosphere. That is a big scientific
challenge today.
Another challenge is the other
cause of global change which is as dramatic (if not more dramatic) than
greenhouse gases. Humans have changed the land cover and vegetation across the
globe. This releases as much greenhouse gases as burning fossil fuels. We need
to manage our impact on the environment through better food production and land
use practices. The challenge is model the environment such that human influence
on it is part of the model. Because that is the fact, humans are huge agents of
environmental change and biogeochemical cycles.
Q:
Based on your observations and experiments, which drastic changes have been
witnessed in the pattern of raining worldwide, specifically in the Asian
continent? What the prospective anticipation of these patterns would be
according to the instances and evidences which you
have gathered?
A:
Precipitation has a lot of
natural variability so detecting trends over the short periods when instrument
records are available is very difficult. But one thing that definitely has
changed is runoff and streamflow from precipitation. We have changed the land
cover and even urbanized major portions of the environment especially where
there is concentrated population. Runoff will change by very large factors
(like half or twice depending on land use change). So a few percent change in
precipitation may not be the issue. We see catastrophic losses due to floods
and droughts these days. This is mostly because increasing populations and more
concentrated populations (like in Bangaladesh or West Africa) are more
vulnerable to flooding or drought.
Q:
Would you please explicate a
bit on the numerous awards which you have been given, specially the Macelwane
Young Scientist Medal? For which efforts and discoveries did they endow you with
the honorable title?
A:
I have been fortunate that
colleagues have recognized my efforts but the best prize of all is to see
students graduate and have successful and fulfilling careers.
Q:
And for the last question, we
are eager to know whether you have ever designated your studies, research papers
or experiments to Iran and its natural potentials of water bodies, atmosphere,
environment etc? Do you think there is enough competences and capacities for a
substantive and major scientific project to be carried out with Iran as its
pivotal concern? Which schemes would you probably mention, if you were supposed
to carry out a research e.g. on the periodic rainfall pattern of northern Iran?
A:
I have recently focused on the
Caspian Sea in terms of its climate variability, ecosystem health, and
environmental quality. It is a very sensitive region because it is a closed
basin. There is a lack of coordination among the neighboring countries in
managing this fragile system. I really hope that a project can be initiated
that involves Iranian scientists in Iran institutions as well as institutions
world-wide. This can serve as a model for work on other aspects of the
environment across Iran. Installing larger and more dense networks for Caspian
Sea and land environment monitoring, collection and analysis of satellite data
and modeling the physics and chemistry would be the first steps.
... Payvand News - 02/09/09 ... --
