By Gary Thomas, VOA,
Washington
The street protests in Iran have faded in the face of the government's
security crackdown. But the political squabbles and bickering continue. Internal
feuds that were once kept behind closed doors have erupted into the open,
providing a rare glimpse of political tensions in the Islamic Republic.
Suzanne Maloney of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy told a recent
congressional hearing that the level of squabbling among Iran's political
heavyweights is unprecedented.
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| Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei |
"The other profound consequence for the Iranian regime ... is the cleavage
within the political elite. There is always been factional bickering within
Iran, but we have never seen anything at this level, and we have never seen the
direct assault on the authority of the office of the supreme leader," she said.
When President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was ordered by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to
drop his choice of Rahim Esfandiar Mashaei to be first vice-president, he
initially refused. Mashaei is controversial in Iranian conservative political circles for
favorable comments he once made about the Israeli people. Mr. Ahmadinejad
subsequently gave in to the Supreme Leader's demand after conservatives called
on him to do so. But in an apparent show of defiance, he then appointed Mashaei
his chief of staff. Commentators have pointed out that Mashaei's daughter is
married to the president's son.
Then on Sunday, with his re-inauguration on the horizon, he fired his hardline
intelligence minister and the culture minister resigned. No official reasons
were given for the moves. But, according to the English-language Tehran Times,
both men had strongly objected to the Mashaei vice-presidential appointment.
On Sunday, Mr. Ahmadinejad also appointed Ali Kordan as special inspector.
Kordan resigned as interior minister last year after it emerged that his claim
of an Oxford University law degree was false. Kordan's new job is to investigate
fraud and corruption in government.
Analysts say the president is also facing internal pressure from reformists as
well as conservatives. Middle East analyst Reva Bhalla of the private
intelligence firm Stratfor says former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -
who is one of President Ahmadinejad's chief political rivals - is trying to
limit the president's ability to politically maneuver in office.
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| Iranian influential cleric and former president
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani delivers his sermon during Friday prayers at
Tehran University in the Iranian capital, 17 Jul 2009 |
"Rafsanjani is making clear that they have boundaries set on how far he [Ahmadinejad]
is going to go, and that the Supreme Leader should respect those boundaries. And
so that is what we need to see moving forward - how far is Ahmadinejad going to
be able to go," said Bhalla.
Stanford University director of Iranian Studies Abbas Milani says the opposition
itself is split.
"I think the opposition, in my mind, is divided in two groups. Some, like
Rafsanjani, are more moderate. Rafsanjani, I think, wants a more refined version
of the status quo. Mousavi and the rest of them, although they have not
articulated, I think want a return, some of them have implicitly said they want
a return, to the first draft of the constitution," said Milani.
That first draft of the 1979 constitution did not confer any special role to the
clergy or contain any reference to velayat-e faqih, the concept under which
final state authority rests with one religious leader.
The balance of power could rest in the hands of the powerful Iran Revolutionary
Guard Corps. The Revolutionary Guard was created in 1979 because the leader
Ayatollah Khomenei did not trust the military. It is a parallel force, separate
from the regular military with its own ground, sea, and air units. It has also
has internal security functions, it controls the Basij militia, and has built up
considerable economic power as well. President Ahmadinejad is a Revolutionary
Guard veteran.
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Khamenei Revolutionary Guards' Leaders (file photo) |
Iran analyst Karim Sadjapour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
told a congressional hearing the president's and supreme leader's real worries
would be if cracks start appearing the Revolutionary Guard.
"What would truly be devastating for Khamenei and Ahmadinejad would be fissures
among the regime's security forces, mainly the Revolutionary Guards. So far, we
have not seen that, but the Revolutionary Guards are a very large entity,
120,000 men," he said. "And whereas the senior commanders are hand-picked by
Khamenei and they are going to likely remain loyal to him, the rank-and-file,
both empirically and anecdotally, we have seen, are much more representative of
Iranian society at large," he added.
President Ahmadinejad is due to be sworn in for his new term August 5.
