London, March 24, IRNA - Oil prices are expected to average $50 per barrel (dpb) for the remainder of the year based upon Dated Brent as the benchmark, according to the latest report from the Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES).
The reference case forecast takes into account the dire state of the world economy and expects global demand to fall by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2009.
It also does not foresee any further compliance by OPEC countries with the quota reductions announced last December.
Dated Brent was expected to have averaged 45 dpb in the first quarter, rising to 50.4 dpb in the second and 51.8 dpb in the third, then up to 53.4 dpb in the final three months of this year.
"With demand set to fall dramatically, it is what happens to supply that will determine the price of oil," CGES said in its new monthly oil report.
Its assumption was that OPEC will keep its output relatively constant through the first quarter before leaking oil as prices marginally rise.
But if OPEC fully complied with the quotas, the report suggested that oil prices would rise much more rapidly throughout 2009, reaching an average of 74.3 dpb in the final quarter, leaving an average of 57.4 dpb for the year.
On the other hand, if global oil consumption fell much faster with early indications of rapid drops in demand in China, India and the former Soviet Union, the London-based centre believed that oil rates could also plummet, down to an average of 34.8 dpb in the last three months of 2009.
Its warning to oil producers was of the need for the economies of consuming countries to recover from the economic problems with each new forecast already painting a gloomier picture than the previous ones.
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