London, May 27, IRNA -- The quarterly average price of oil is expected to rise steadily through to the end of the year as global demand rises faster than production, according to the latest reference case forecast from the Center for Global Energy Studies (CGES).
The London-based center predicted that the prices of benchmark Dated Brent will gradually grow from an average of $53 per barrel in the second quarter of 2008 to $62 per barrel in the final three months of the year.
Its latest monthly report suggested that there may be some light at the end of the tunnel with regards to the worst of the economic recession even though the world is still using much less oil than it did a year ago.
"It is beginning to look as if global oil consumption in 2Q09 could turn out to be higher than it was in 1Q09, potentially bringing to an end a run of five consecutive quarters of falling global oil demand," it said.
But CGES cautioned that that this is 'not to say that the outlook for oil demand growth is good, but merely that it is less awful than it has been in recent months'.
Although OPEC has ensured that surplus crude oil supply has been removed from the market through strong compliance with very deep output cuts a sustained tightening of the oil market 'is far from certain, for the economic outlook remains uncertain'.
The oil report made a case that prices could drop back towards $40 per barrel based on rising output in the last three quarters of the year and global oil demand remaining the same as in the base case.
But it also suggested that rates by the end of 2008 could break $70 per barrel if OPEC further slashed supply by half a million barrels per day.
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