Report by Mehr News Agency, Teharn
Bank forecasted in its latest report that Iran's economic growth will reach
2.2 percent in 2010. The report stated that Iran's growth in 2008 and 2009
reached 2.5 percent and 1 percent respectively.
Global Economic Prospects 2010:
Crisis, Finance, and Growth
The economic growth prospect for Iran in 2011 is
3.2 percent, reported the Islamic Republic of Iran News Network.
Following the tortuous conditions of 2009, prospects for both the developing and
high-income economies of the Middle East and North Africa should improve through
2011, the report added.
Growth is projected to increase to 4.4 percent by that year, the same pace
registered on average between 1995 and 2005.
Though domestic absorption will be a continuing source of strength, the forecast
for regional recovery is premised on a revival in global oil demand, firming oil
prices, and a rebound in key export markets.
Despite the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures, moderate advances in
consumer and capital spending are expected to underpin the strengthening of
But the regional profile masks both the diversity of performance across
countries and the driving forces for growth.
Oil prices are expected to remain broadly stable over the forecast period, at
around $75 a barrel.
Stronger global activity should allow for crude oil and gas production to return
to positive growth, implying moderate revenue gains.
As a result, current account positions for developing oil exporters are
projected to stabilize near 5 percent of GDP by 2011.
GDP growth for developing oil exporters should reach 3.1 and 3.7 percent,
respectively, in 2010 and 2011.
By 2011 growth will vary from 3 percent in the Islamic Republic of Iran to 5.5
percent in Syria, grounded in developments in non-oil sectors and in investment
in hydrocarbons capacity.
2010 Economic Prospects for the Middle East and North
January 2010 - A new World Bank
Economic Prospects 2010: Crisis, Finance, and Growth," notes that the crisis
is having serious cumulative impacts on poverty, with 64 million more people
expected to be living in extreme poverty by the end of 2010 than would have been
the case without the crisis, according to updated analysis.
Following the tortuous conditions of 2009,
prospects for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) should improve through
2011. Growth is projected to increase to 4.4 percent by that
year, the same pace registered on average between 1995 and 2005.
Though domestic absorption will be a continuing
source of strength, the forecast for regional recovery is premised on a revival
in global oil demand, firming oil prices, and a rebound in key export markets.
Oil prices are expected to
remain broadly stable over the projection period, at around $75 a barrel. A
rekindling of interest in regional FDI may emerge as financial and economic
conditions begin to normalize. Economic recovery in Europe and among the GCC
countries will be supportive of a revival for the diversified economies.
The impact of the global financial crisis
for the developing economies of MENA region varied across oil exporters and
importers of the region
The "food-fuel" crisis of 2007-08 was a challenge
for the region, the largest net exporter of oil and the largest net importer of
Oil exporters were less
adversely affected, but food import bills widened sharply.
Hardest hit were countries in the Maghreb,
as well as Jordan and Lebanon, which are large
importers of both food and fuel; and the Arab Republic of Egypt
(high food-import dependence).
Over the course of 2009, net terms-of-trade
movements for the developing oil exporters (Algeria, Islamic
Republic of Iran, Syrian Arab Republic, and Republic of Yemen) and the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) were favorable, as oil prices increased
and food prices declined. But high oil prices have been maintained at the
expense of much reduced output.
For the more diversified economies
(Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia) steep declines in external demand
(notably from the dominant Euro Area) had a negative effect on merchandise
exports, compounded by falling tourism volumes, lower worker remittances, and
declining FDI inflows, notably those from the GCC economies.
Developments among the regional oil
The global economic crisis ended the oil boom
that saw oil prices peak at more than $150 a barrel in mid-2008, and prices have
settled into a range of $65-$80 a barrel. As part of this effort, regional oil
exporters scaled back production by nearly 10 percent (11 percent among
high-income producers and 7.3 percent among the developing exporters of the
region). The combination of much lower prices and reduced output caused oil and
gas revenues for all exporters to drop from $755 billion in 2008 to $485
billion in 2009.
Developments among the diversified
The Euro Area is the destination for more than 70
percent of goods exports from the diversified economies of MENA region.
Moreover, the Euro Area is also the host for overseas workers from the Maghreb
and Mashreq and an important source of remittance flows and tourism arrivals to
the developing region.
Slackening of economic activity and worsening
labor conditions in Europe, as well as across the GCC economies over the course
of 2009 caused the flow of worker remittances into the developing region to
decline by 6.3 percent for the year-in contrast to the strong gains of 23.0 and
11.3 percent in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Among the larger recipient
countries, Egypt appears to have been most adversely affected,
with flows declining 9 percent, while Morocco experienced an 8
percent drop in receipts. Jordan, Lebanon, and Tunisia
experienced lesser declines, within a range of 1 to 3 percent.
Tourism receipts are a key
source of foreign currency equivalent to 14 percent of GDP for the diversified
economies of the region. With Europe suffering increasing unemployment rates,
faltering wage growth, and efforts by households to repair balance sheets badly
damaged by the financial market meltdown of 2008, tourism receipts are estimated
to have declined by 5 percent during 2009.
GDP Growth Rates for the Region
The MENA region was less sharply
impacted by the crisis than other regions, with overall GDP growth slowing to
2.9 percent in 2009. GDP is projected to grow 3.7 percent in
2010 and 4.4 percent by 2011
GDP growth in 2009 for the developing
countries of the region is estimated to have eased to 2.9
percent, from 4.3 percent in 2008.
As investment and trade plummeted in key Euro
Area economies, GDP for the diversified economies declined to
0.5 percent growth in 2008, and it is anticipated to contract by a sharp
3.9 percent in 2009, the deepest recession since WWII.
GDP growth for developing oil exporters
should reach 3.1 and 3.7 percent, respectively, in 2010 and
GDP gains for the oil importers
(diversified economies) faltered by almost 2 percentage points in the year, from
a strong 6.6 percent outturn in 2008 (powered by growth of more than 7 percent
in Egypt) to 4.7 percent in 2009.
GDP for the high-income GCC economies
is anticipated to increase by 3.2 percent in 2010 and 4.1
percent in 2011, as oil production firms and a higher average oil price help to
restore revenues, albeit in more moderate increments.
Prospects for the MENA Region
... Payvand News - 01/23/10 ... --