Source: Moj News
Business Monitor in Its Q1 2011 report on Iran's Power Sector forecasts that the Islamic Republic will account for 14.79% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2015, with a broadly balanced market if nuclear generation plans proceed uninterrupted.
Karun4 dam in Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari province of Iran
BMI's MEA power generation estimate for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (where markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). BMI is forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,518TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 24.2% between 2010 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI at 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region.
BMI's forecast for 2015 is 1,378TWh, implying 20.8% growth in 2010-2015 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 90.8% - thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
Iran's thermal generation in 2010 reached 192TWh, or 16.85% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 14.45% of regional thermal generation.
Gas was the dominant fuel in Iran in 2010, accounting for an estimated 57.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 40.4% and hydro with a 0.8% share of PED. Nuclear power should make its first contribution during 2011. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,117mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.8% growth over the period since 2010. Iran's estimated 2010 market share of 22.38% is set to ease to 21.21% by 2015. Iran's nuclear demand is forecast to reach 10TWh by 2015, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 38.46%.
BMI now forecasts that Iran's real GDP growth will average 2.00% a year between 2010 and 2015, with 2011 growth assumed to be 1.30%. The population is expected to expand from 73.9mn to 78.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 31% and 5% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 161TWh in 2010 to 179TWh by 2015, providing a broadly balanced market, assuming 2.2% average annual growth in electricity generation. The success of the nuclear programme will have a major influence on generation growth.
Between 2010 and 2020 BMI forecasts a 25.5% increase in Iranian electricity generation. This equates to 11.9% in 2015-2020, down from 12.2% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to decrease from 14.4% in 2010-2015 to 12.6%, representing 28.8% for the entire forecast period. From 2011, the availability of nuclear power is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 19% between 2010 and 2020.
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