Consequences of not Certifying Iran's Compliance with the JCPOA
The Iran Project has
issued a one page brief on the Consequences
of not Certifying Iran's Compliance with the JCPOA - a
decision that President Trump will face by October 15, 2017. If he decides to
not certify Iran's compliance with the nuclear deal, Congress will then have 60
days to consider reimposing sanctions on an expedited timeline that could end
the U.S. commitment to the agreement, or they could decide not to act
Trump playing fire with
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
cartoon by Mehdi Azizi, Iranian
A decision by President Trump not to certify Iran's compliance with the JCPOA
in the absence of persuasive evidence of Iran's violations would have grave
long-term political and security consequences for the U.S.-including another
regional war. No American national security objective would be served by
scuttling the nuclear agreement as long as Iran remains in compliance and
without a nuclear weapon.
Failure to certify would:
- Fortify Iran's current allegations that the U.S. is in violation of the
JCPOA. If they determine there is no proven Iranian violation, the majority of
the members of the JCPOA Joint Commission could well agree that the U.S., and
not Iran, is non-compliant.
- Return Iran to becoming an imminent nuclear threat should it decide to resume
its production of fissile material under greatly reduced or no international
oversight which measures the full range of Iran's nuclear program.
- Embolden Iran's security forces and other hardline elements thereby increasing
the likelihood of the escalation of military conflicts between Iran and the U.S.
and its allies in the Middle East. It would also weaken Iranians who support
reforms and a weakening of Iran's domestic forces who oppose opening to the
- Alternatively, isolate the U.S. by providing Europe, China and Russia the
opportunity to continue observing the JCPOA with Iran. All nations could continue
to pursue trade and investment opportunities with Iran.
- Undermine U.S. world leadership and challenge the power of the U.S. Treasury
in the international financial system and the U.S. dollar as a global reserve
currency should Congress unilaterally impose extra-territorial sanctions
resulting in legal disputes and political strains with European and other
nations no longer sanctioning Iran under the JCPOA.
- Divide the U.S. and Europe, allowing Russia and China to move closer to their
longstanding goal of splitting the West and destroying the international unity
required to respond forcefully to any future Iranian violation.
- Destroy U.S. credibility as a reliable negotiating partner on issues involving
nuclear weapons, particularly with Russia and North Korea and be a significant
setback for America's long term commitment to the non-proliferation of nuclear
- Reduce prospects for a political resolution of the conflicts in Iraq, Syria,
Yemen and Afghanistan, none of which can be resolved by military action alone or
without Iran's participation.
- Create international political disarray, since other world powers that support
the JCPOA would be confused about U.S. intentions regarding plans to prevent an
Iranian nuclear weapon and Congress would be unclear about next steps on
sanctions against Iran.
- Make war with Iran and its over 80 million people more likely as a result of
mounting U.S.-Iranian hostility emerging from any increased U.S. use of kinetic
force and covert action and an expansion of Iranian actions against U.S.
... Payvand News - 09/08/17 ... --