By Kam Zarrabi
Much to the delight of my regular detractors, I have cut back from writing my almost monthly opinion articles about the ongoing US/Iran tug-of-war. However, with the appointment of the warmonger neoconservative psychopath, John Bolton, as the national security advisor by the Clueless Clown-in-Chief, this decades-long almost ceremonial push and pull seems to be reaching, at least potentially, a disastrous flash point deserving of a bareknuckle commentary.
But, with all the muscle-flexing and tough talk about the United States preparing for a war against Iran, I do not believe for a second that either the US or Israel would start such a war. As I have often repeated, when the threats of war accomplish the objectives, why risk starting a real war? Why do I say that?
The Jewish state initiating a war against Iran would be an unthinkably stupid action, when any retaliatory reaction by Iran and its regional allies would bring unbearable human and infrastructure losses to the small state. The Israeli leaders have always been cunningly shrewd and cautious calculators!
Both the United States and Israel know that Iran poses no threat of initiating any aggression to either state; it never has and never will. This, again, stands to reason: Any reaction by the United States or Israel would mean vast devastation of Iran in every respect. And, the Iranian regime does not consist of a bunch of suicidal maniacs!
Now, enter John Bolton!
The White House is embroiled in continuous controversy and remains preoccupied with Donald's trapeze acts to distract from the barrage of charges and attacks by the Democrats. The mainstream media has been devoting almost their entire broadcasts to Trump-bashing and meaningless analyses of everything the Clueless Clown does or tweets......Was he leaning to his right or to his left side when he passed some gas, and what it tells us as to what he meant by it!!
Meantime, the likes of Bolton have been taking advantage of all this distraction, pursuing his personal agenda. This clinically troubled psychopath has usurped the authorities of the Secretaries of State and Defense by dispatching a naval force to the Persian Gulf area in preparation to defend against some supposedly imminent Iranian attack on American and allies' targets. This information, actually misinformation, was apparently provided by the Israeli intelligence, no less!
A claim, which does bear some truth, is that the Iraqi militias have been alarming the American forces still in Iraq and demanding their withdrawal from that country. Iran, which does have economic and political influence inside Iraq, supports these militias' demands. This alone was the reason for the wording in the warning to Iran that any attack on the American targets in the region by Iran or its "proxies", hinting at the Iraqi militias, would be militarily responded to, expecting that Iran would discourage the Iraqi militias from any action similar to what the Taliban are doing in Afghanistan. But that would not be enough for the United States to launch a full-scale or even a limited war against Iran, simply because any reaction by Iran would result in untold damage to the Jewish state, which is correctly regarded as America's outpost in the Middle East.
So, if neither the United States, nor Israel, intends to attack Iran, what remains to worry about?
Let us do a theoretical, even though the scenario is not that much away from the realm of probability:
Some false-flag operation brings down a plane or sinks a tanker belonging to either Iran or Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf. (By the way, Israelis are well known as masters of this craft.) After tensions are even more elevated by the assassination of some prominent figure, war breaks out between the Saudis and the Iranians. Iran suffers major losses to its nuclear reactor and portal facilities and offshore production platforms. Iranian short-range missiles destroy Saudi's oil production and refining plants, pipelines, and other vital facilities. The Strait of Hormuz is blocked by the sinking of oil tankers, blocking the passage of any crude through that narrow waterway.
From Europe to India, Japan and China, there is an immediate shortage of oil and an outcry for the superpowers and the United Nations to intervene. But instead, a flood of weapons pours into the Arab states of the Gulf to further intensify and prolong the war, reminiscent of the eight-year war that Iraq's Saddam waged against Iran.
The Arab state looks toward its ally, the United States for help, while Iran expects Russia to come to its aid. But nothing happens!
Price of oil skyrockets to over 200 dollars a barrel: But not to worry; the United States and Russia announce their readiness to supply the needed crude to the market, at the new price, of course. In America, the shale-oil production, plus fracking and secondary recovery methods, result in a booming growth and development of the hydrocarbon industry, further economic growth and new jobs. Russia, meanwhile, offers to sell oil and gas to the largest markets in Europe, China, Japan and India, and to sell military machinery and technology to poor Iran - a very timely economic windfall!
After having triggered the whole thing, Israel relaxes on the sidelines watching their main regional detractor, Iran, losing its capacity to provide money, arms and advisors to Israel's local enemies, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas.
So, is there any real, pragmatic, incentive for anyone to mediate or intervene to stop the bloodshed and the destruction of the two nations, while those who are in power to do so stand to gain so much by not doing it?
At this point in time, what strategy should the Iranian government adopt to prevent this kind of eventuality?
Rather than try to "negotiate" with the likes of the
oversized robot, Pompeo, the nutcase Bolton, or the Clown-in-Chief, Trump, which
will prove fruitless at the end, Iranians should create closer dialog with their
Arab counterparts to watch out for "deliberate" accidents that might ignite the
powder keg and destroy both nations.
About the author:
Kambiz Zarrabi has devoted the last thirty-some years teaching, lecturing and writing about US/Iran relations. Previous to his retirement, his career included working as geologist/geophysicist in the oil and minerals exploration industries with American and Iranian firms and in the private sector. His tenure included serving at Iran's Ministry of Economy as the Director General of Mines in the late 60s and early 70s.
He received his college education at the University of California in Los Angeles, graduating in 1960.
... Payvand News - 05/11/19 ... --